文章基本信息

标题：The Dynamic Properties of InflationTargeting Under Uncertainty Defined Benefit Pension Funds
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作者：Maria Demertzis ; Nicola Viegi
期刊名称：DNB Staff Reports
出版年度：2004
卷号：1
出版社：Nederlandsche Bank
摘要：We study the implications of uncertainty for in.ation targeting in a dynamic set-up. Using Svensson’s in.ation forecast targeting model, we compare the Brainard conservative principle to a more active monetary policy rule, derived from a two-step optimisation procedure. Our analysis points to a trade-o¤ between the ability to control expectations and the introduction of greater variability in the system. We show that Brainard′s attenuation principle is optimal only in a backward looking set-up where there is no role for expectations in the determination of in.ation equilibrium. On the other hand, we show that in a forward looking model, Brainard’s conservative principle may produce instability, because of its inability to control expectations. A more aggressive rule, like the one derived in the paper, can instead provide greater stability because it provides for a better and more direct management of expectations, despite the uncertainty in the transmission parameters. In that respect, we show that there are conditions under which the bene…ts of tying down expectations, more than compensate the costs of having to overuse the instrument.
关键词：In.ation Targeting, Parameter Uncertainty, Two-Step Target, Dynamic Models