文章基本信息

标题：Forecasting Inflation in the Netherlands and the Euro Area
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作者：A.H.J. den Reijer en P.J.G. Vlaar
期刊名称：DNB Research Reports
出版年度：2003
卷号：1
出版社：De Nederlandsche Bank
摘要：In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation is the yearly change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the subcomponents of the HICP and the aggregated HICP-index itself. Both models are small-scale linear time series models allowing for long run equilibrium relationships between HICP subcomponents and other variables, notably the hourly wage rate and the import prices. The model for the Netherlands is used to generate Dutch inflation forecasts over an horizon of 11-15 months ahead for the Narrow Inflation Projection Exercise (NIPE). NIPE-forecasts have been generated quarterly by each country in the eurosystem since 1999.
关键词：inflation, model selection, time series models