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标题：Common and idiosyncratic factors of the exchange risk premium in emerging European markets
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作者：Joseph P. Byrne ; Jun Nagayasu
期刊名称：Departmental Discussion Papers / University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
出版年度：2008
卷号：1
出版社：University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
摘要：Existing empirical evidence suggests that the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) condition may not hold due to an exchange risk premium. For a panel data set of eleven emerging European economies we decompose this exchange risk premium into an idiosyncratic (country-specific) elements and a common factor using a principal components approach. We present evidence of a stationary idiosyncratic component and nonstationary common factor. This result leads to the conclusion of a nonstationary risk premium for these countries and a violation of the UIRP in the long-run, which is in contrast to previous studies often documenting a stationary premium in developed countries. Furthermore, we report that the variation in the premium is largely attributable to a common factor influenced by economic developments in the United States.
关键词：Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, Emerging Economies, Exchange Risk Premiums, Common Factors.