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  • 标题:Time and Causality: A Monte Carlo Assessment of the Timing-of-Events Approach
  • 作者:Simen Gaure ; Knut Røed ; Tao Zhang
  • 期刊名称:Memoranda / University of Oslo
  • 出版年度:2005
  • 卷号:2005
  • 出版社:University of Oslo
  • 摘要:We present new Monte Carlo evidence regarding the feasibility of separating causality from selection within non-experimental interval-censored duration data, by means of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE). Key findings are: i) the NPMLE is extremely reliable, and it accurately separates the causal effects of treatment and duration dependence from sorting effects, almost regardless of the true unobserved heterogeneity distribution; ii) the NPMLE is normally distributed, and standard errors can be computed directly from the optimally selected model; and iii) unjustified restrictions on the heterogeneity distribution, e.g., in terms of a prespecified number of support points, may cause substantial bias.
  • 关键词:NPMLE, treatment effect
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