摘要:This paper analyses whether sovereign default episodes can be seen as
contingencies of optimal international lending contracts. The model considers a
small open economy with capital accumulation and without commitment to repay
debt. Taking first order approximations of Bellman equations, I derive
analytical expressions for the equilibrium level of debt and the optimal debt
contract. In this environment, debt relief generated by reasonable fluctuations
in productivity is an order of magnitude below that generated by shocks to world
interest rates. Debt relief prescribed by the model following the interest rate
hikes of 1980-81 accounts for a substantial part of the debt forgiveness
obtained by the main Latin American countries through the Brady agreements.
关键词:sovereign debt; default; capital flows; optimal contract; world interest rates