文章基本信息

标题：Are paleo-proxy data helpful for constraining futureclimate change?
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作者：Thomas Schneider von Deimling ; H. Held ; A. Ganopolski andS. Rahmstorf 等
期刊名称：PAGES News
印刷版ISSN：1811-1602
电子版ISSN：1811-1610
出版年度：2008
卷号：16
期号：2
出版社：PAGES International Project Office
摘要：How sensitive is our climate system to CO2? This is a key issue in a world of rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Estimating the temperature sensitivity of the Earth to changes in atmospheric CO2 has therefore been the subject of intensive research. Yet, uncertainty in our knowledge of this sensitivity is still large—as expressed by the broad 2-4.5°C range of climate sensitivity (ΔT2x) estimates (Meehl et al., 2007). Commonly ΔT2x is defined as the equilibrium global-mean temperature change for doubling the pre-industrial CO2 concentration. The direct radiative effect is a warming by 1°C but what makes the total warming uncertain is the strength of the fast climatic feedbacks—mainly ice-albedo, water vapor, lapse rate and cloud feedback. Here, we discuss how paleo-data can be used to reduce uncertainty in the range of ΔT2x.