Putin sees Ukraine as 'line in the sand'

KIEV, Ukraine -- In a speech to campaign workers before his re- election last March, Russian President Vladimir Putin chillingly hinted at what is clearly now a foreign policy crusade.

"The collapse of the Soviet Union is a national tragedy on an enormous scale," the former KGB agent told the gathering at Moscow State University. "We cannot only look back and curse about this issue."

Putin's remarks were more than just lamentations. In nearly five years as president, Putin has seen the Baltic states join NATO and the European Union and the U.S. establish military bases in Central Asia. And he watched helplessly as last year's bloodless "Rose Revolution" nudged Georgia into the sphere of the West.

The Kremlin needed a Maginot line, and its behavior before and after the widely disputed presidential election in Ukraine suggests the former Soviet republic has become that.

Opposition leaders in Ukraine say the Kremlin sank millions of dollars into the campaign of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, a pro- Russia candidate who last week was formally declared president before a court appeal put the election result in limbo. It also dispatched an army of political advisers who helped Yanukovych in his campaign against Western-leaning reformer Viktor Yushchenko.

And as demonstrators massed in the streets of Kiev and international leaders condemned the election as rigged, Putin twice went out of his way to congratulate Yanukovych on his victory -- before and after official results were announced.

Analysts say Putin is bent on stanching the creep of Western influence into former Soviet republics that the Kremlin has regarded as under Moscow's wing. Ukraine, they say, makes for a perfect line in the sand.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Kremlin was concerned by the West's attempts to influence events in Ukraine, "especially when some European capitals say that they don't accept the elections, and their next thesis is that Ukraine must be with the West.

"The Ukrainian people must decide who Ukraine wants to be with, and such statements make you think that somebody really wants to draw new dividing lines in Europe," Lavrov said Friday in Moscow.

That was one of the themes of the presidential campaign: Yushchenko ran on an agenda of securing Ukraine's entry into the EU and NATO.

The EU's and NATO's recent acceptance of the former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania had already brought Western economic and military might to Russia's doorstep, but Ukrainian membership would pave the way for NATO ships in Black Sea ports and troops on the streets of Kiev.

"A pro-European Ukrainian policy would be perceived by Russia as a loss of its territory, loss of its satellite," said Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a Moscow-based sociologist who studies Russia's ruling elite. "So to Russia, that would mean a dramatic weakening of its strength."

Economically, Ukraine is more tethered to Russia than to Europe, and a Yanukovych presidency would preserve that relationship. As much as 90 percent of Russian natural gas exported to Europe travels through pipelines in Ukraine.

Putin also has worked hard to create an economic community among Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan that fosters free trade.

"Yushchenko is against this common economic state," said Moscow- based analyst Vyacheslav Nikonov of the Politika Foundation. "He would denounce that agreement, and many Ukrainian industries would suffer."

There are deeper, historical reasons that explain Russia's desire to keep Ukraine in its fold. Russia's roots date back not to Moscow but to ninth-century Kiev, when the cradle of Slavic civilization was the medieval state of Kievan Rus.

Many Russians never have fully accepted Ukraine's breakaway from the Soviet Union in 1991, analysts say. A poll conducted last weekend by the Moscow-based Levada Center found that nearly 70 percent of Russians do not consider Ukraine a foreign state.

"Historically, many Russians in the ruling elite still, after 13 years, consider Ukrainian independence to be an aberration," said Markian Bilynskyj, an analyst with the U.S. Ukraine Foundation, a Kiev-based group advocating democracy. "They consider Ukraine to be part of core Russian lands."

Russian affairs analysts say that while the Kremlin can make a case for trying to preserve its influence over Ukraine, the strategy is laden with risk.

The Kremlin has vehemently defended what it insists was a "free and fair election" despite evidence gathered by international observers of ballot-stuffing, voter intimidation and state-owned media coverage biased heavily for Yanukovych.

Analysts say Russia risks further alienating European and U.S. leaders already dismayed with recent Kremlin initiatives that have pushed the country toward authoritarian rule.

Particularly telling was the fact that the only other leader to congratulate Yanukovych before election results were certified Wednesday was Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, regarded as Europe's last dictator.

The stakes are higher for Ukraine, which teeters on the brink of civil conflict.

Yushchenko has massed thousands of demonstrators on the streets of Kiev. Meanwhile, Yanukovych supporters have been bused into Kiev from the prime minister's core provinces in Ukraine's heavily industrialized east, creating the potential for clashes in the streets.

Either candidate's victory could irreparably split the country, which is divided between Yushchenko supporters to the west and in Kiev and Yanukovych backers in the east. A Yushchenko victory would alienate millions of Ukrainians in the east, which represents much of Ukraine's economic output, Nikonov said.

The outcome of the election remains unresolved. Earlier in the week, Ukraine's Central Election Commission officially declared Yanukovych president, but on Thursday Ukraine's Supreme Court agreed to hear Yushchenko's appeal charging that the election was rigged in Yanukovych's favor.

The court's decision keeps Yanukovych from taking office until it rules on Yushchenko's appeal. Friday evening, Yushchenko and Yanukovych began face-to-face talks but reached no settlement.

If Yanukovych is given the presidency, Ukraine would pay a heavy price, analysts say. He probably would be ostracized by the rest of Europe and the United States. The man who put Yanukovych on the verge of the presidency, departing President Leonid Kuchma, had long been pushing for integration with Europe, but a Yanukovych presidency would dash those hopes.

"In the long run, he would become another outcast," said Moscow political analyst Igor Bunin.

Though the United States and Europe have been careful not to advocate a Yushchenko presidency during the postelection crisis, it is clear the West wants him.

Washington's leverage in the crisis is limited to sanctions and travel bans it can impose on Kuchma, Yanukovych and other top Ukrainian officials it deems responsible for engineering election fraud.

But the threat of such sanctions is far from an idle one; many Ukrainian officials have millions of dollars invested in business interests in the West.

"The threat of freezing or confiscating assets of individuals or imposing travel bans, this gives the U.S. a lot of leverage," Bilynskyj said. "Someone high up in the Ukrainian bureaucracy, do they want to take the fall for Yanukovych?"

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