What will Bush's legacy be?

WASHINGTON -- Two years after he moved militarily against Saddam Hussein, President Bush's place in history figures to rest heavily on what becomes of Iraq -- and its aftershocks in the Middle East.

Democratic stirrings in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and Egypt could lead to greater stability but also renewed spasms of violence, analysts said, and the results could depend on what happens in Saddam's former domain.

"Iraq is the pivot point," said James Ceaser, professor of politics at the University of Virginia. "That's where we put our credibility on the line. It's really the fulcrum of the whole thing."

Bush said the Iraqi and Afghan people deserve credit for recent elections in their countries, adding that the free elections will "serve as examples for others over time, and that will lead to more peace, and that's what we want."

Yet events must be managed carefully in the ever-volatile Middle East, analysts said. Failure in Iraq could lead to other reversals in the region: civil war in Lebanon, renewed violence between the Israelis and Palestinians, and an emboldened Iran armed with nuclear weapons.

The promise and the perils are forcing Bush to consider new approaches to the Middle East, in part to ease the global hard feelings produced by the invasion of Iraq.

This month, for example, Bush withdrew his opposition to European plans to offer Iran economic incentives in exchange for its renunciation of nuclear weapons. As Iran denies seeking weapons, however, some administration officials privately expressed skepticism as to whether the European approach would work.

There is evidence the administration is re-evaluating what role the militant group Hezbollah might play as it seeks to force Syria out of Lebanon. The president also met recently with a Lebanese cardinal who supports integrating Hezbollah into a new Lebanese government.

Bush said he still considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization, but added that it can prove otherwise by "laying down (its) arms."

In seeking to reshape Iraq and the larger Middle East, Bush must also confront the fact that he and the United States remain distrusted in much of the Arab world, in large part because of the Iraq war.

This is one reason Bush nominated longtime political adviser Karen Hughes to serve as undersecretary of state for public diplomacy. One of her tasks, the president said, is to "communicate America's fundamental values while respecting the cultures and traditions of other nations."

Fawaz Gerges, who teaches Middle East Studies at Sarah Lawrence College, said the administration "appears to have learned some lessons from its Iraq endeavor."

"The administration is listening more to its European allies," he said. "The administration is becoming more nuanced in its approach."

Bush's goal of spreading liberty throughout the Middle East and beyond is a near-universal one, analysts pointed out.

"It's the policies that we implement and how we go forward with the rest of the world that will be more important," said Mara Rudman, who worked at the National Security Council during the Clinton administration.

According to polls in the Middle East, many Arabs believe the Bush administration unduly favors Israel over the Palestinians, noting that the president once called Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon a "man of peace" while refusing to negotiate with Yasser Arafat.

The administration has to be careful of onrushing events, said analysts, noting that elections may not mean much if they install even more repressive and anti-American governments. And in Iraq, there is no guarantee the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds will be able to put together a constitution and set up a permanent government.

Some analysts also questioned how much the Iraqi elections have contributed to the democratic uprisings in the Middle East.

The Palestinian elections preceded those in Iraq, and negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians probably owe much to the death of Arafat and the elevation of Mahmoud Abbas. Similarly, the protests in Lebanon are probably due less to events in Iraq than to the assassination of popular opposition leader Rafik Hariri.

James Zogby, president of the Washington-based Arab American Institute, said he doesn't see a coherent Bush policy, only a packaging of the news to fit the politics of the moment. He also noted that the rationale for war in Iraq shifted from weapons of mass destruction to spreading democracy in the Middle East.

"I'm leery of this packaging game, of acting as if language creates reality," Zogby said. "We have to be careful that we don't promote instability and sectarian civil strife."

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