Capture is a blow for al-Qaida

WASHINGTON -- Khalid Shaikh Mohammed's darkly imaginative mind has long been one of al-Qaida's deadliest assets. Now that he is in custody, his extensive knowledge of al-Qaida plots and tactics could pose a serious threat to the terrorist network.

Mohammed is likely to know the identities and locations of al- Qaida operatives around the world, including members of any so- called "sleeper cells" hiding in the United States, intelligence officials and terrorism experts said.

His interrogation -- which already has begun at an undisclosed location -- thus might lead to an intelligence bonanza of details about al-Qaida plots, finances, communications, safe houses and other operations that have helped sustain al-Qaida since the loss of its sanctuary in Afghanistan.

Experts said Mohammed was so crucial to the network and his knowledge of its secrets so extensive that his arrest is certain to send ripples of panic to every corner of the organization, including wherever Osama bin Laden is hiding.

"Nobody's safe now," said Bob Baer, a former CIA officer who spent much of his career tracking terrorism. "They're going to have to move. Everything they considered reliable is gone -- safe houses, sources of money and the rest. They have to assume the worst."

Coupled with previous arrests and strikes, Mohammed's capture all but eliminates an entire tier of the al-Qaida hierarchy, stripping the network of its best minds for organizing and executing terrorist plots.

"It's the crown jewels of the organization's operational capacity," said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorist expert at the Rand Institute in Washington. "The repercussions radiate in both directions. It cuts the senior leaders off from their conduit for orders to foot soldiers, and foot soldiers from guidance and planning and implementation of operations."

Experts cautioned that al-Qaida's ability to replenish its ranks and its decentralized structure that allows cells and plots to survive even decapitating blows still make it an unparalleled threat.

"You weaken the body by cutting off the head, but you don't eliminate the danger. The problem is that the organization is not hierarchical," said veteran French investigative Judge Jean-Louis Bruguiere.

But many in the intelligence community said the arrest is arguably the most significant in the history of counterterrorism, and that capturing bin Laden himself would be more important only in a symbolic sense.

"Beyond (Mohammed's) knowledge of current al-Qaida plots, he's likely to know the identity and whereabouts of other top terror leaders around the world," said a U.S. official familiar with the capture. "His capture could lead to an information windfall that will lead to further successes against al-Qaida."

Reports from Pakistan indicate that authorities confiscated a computer, computer discs and other evidence during the pre-dawn raid in Rawalpindi. Such material in the past has provided the outlines of terror plots as well as phone numbers, addresses, phony IDs and other clues that have led to further arrests.

Mohammed is believed to have reported directly to Osama bin Laden in the past. The two were said to be together when bin Laden first heard reports of the Sept. 11 attacks, and Mohammed might know bin Laden's current -- or recent -- whereabouts. The CIA believes bin Laden is hiding in the rugged mountains between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but repeated raids in the area have failed to find him.

While bin Laden is considered the inspirational leader and public face of al-Qaida, captives and detainees have described Mohammed as a charismatic figure who operates in the shadows as a recruiter, coordinator and "field general."

Mohammed has overseen plots in Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Even though he was on the run in Pakistan, French investigators say Mohammed organized and commanded last year's truck-bomb attack on a historic synagogue on the Tunisian island of Djerba that killed 21 people, coordinating a network that included a presence in France, Germany and Spain. Mohammed spoke to the suicide bomber by satellite phone shortly before the bombing, according to investigators.

He has played a role in al-Qaida's efforts to obtain chemical and biological weapons, as well as a radiological dispersion device -- a so-called dirty bomb -- that uses conventional explosives to spread radioactive material.

Mohammed is also believed to be the direct commander of terror cells around the world.

"He's the guy who keeps the keys to the sleeper cells," said Vincent Cannistraro, a former CIA counter-terrorism official, referring to groups of militants who live ostensibly normal lives until called into action. "He knows where the sleeper cells are in the United States."

FBI director Robert Mueller III told a Senate committee hearing last month that hundreds of al-Qaida members might be in the United States. The administration this week lowered a terrorist alert that was based, in part, on fears that a sleeper cell had been activated and was planning an attack within the United States.

Cannistraro said Mohammed's arrest showed that U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies, especially the CIA and FBI, were achieving results.

"They've gone from being justly criticized for the failures that led to 9/11 to the point where capabilities and coordination have produced real results," he said.

In addition to the Sept. 11 attack, Mohammed likely holds answers to an array of tantalizing questions. He could provide a long-sought accounting of the chain of events that led to the first World Trade Center bombing in 1993. And he undoubtedly has extensive knowledge of al-Qaida's sources of financing, which could create diplomatic problems for the United States if his information points to prominent figures in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere.

Despite the arrests, the threat posed by Osama bin Laden's organization remains high, counter-terrorism officials said Saturday. Al-Qaida has always been an alliance of movements with a limited hierarchy, not a regimented force comparable to paramilitary terror groups or crime cartels. The network's structure has become increasingly decentralized since the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan.

"It is without question a big catch," said Bruguiere, the French judge. "But I do not think it will have an important effect on the menace."

"The networks are so dispersed that the arrest of one man, as significant as he is, does not change that much," he said.

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