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  • 标题:Revisions to the current employment statistics state and area estimates effective January 2003 - Illustration
  • 作者:Molly E. Barth
  • 期刊名称:Employment and Earnings (Online)
  • 电子版ISSN:1943-4022
  • 出版年度:2003
  • 卷号:March 2003
  • 出版社:U.S. Department of Labor * Bureau of Labor Statistics

Revisions to the current employment statistics state and area estimates effective January 2003 - Illustration

Molly E. Barth

With the release of estimates for January 2003, State and area employment, hours, and earnings data produced from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program incorporate several important changes that affect data analysis and comparison. These changes include:

* Incorporation of March 2002 benchmarks,

* Completion of the CES sample redesign,

* Conversion to the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), and

* Modification of seasonal adjustment methodology.

This article summarizes the nature of these changes and provides an indication of their effect on published estimates.

Background

The CES program is a Federal-State cooperative program that produces monthly estimates of employment, hours, and earnings based on nonagricultural establishment payrolls for the Nation, the 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and more than 270 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Information for these estimates is derived from a sample of more than 300,000 business establishments. CES estimates are some of the most closely watched and widely used economic indicators among public and private policymakers alike. The CES program offers several important attributes to its users: Timely release of data, an abundance of industry and geographic detail, and an annual benchmark to full population counts from State unemployment insurance (UI) tax records, which helps to maintain overall survey accuracy.

Incorporation of March 2002 benchmarks

With the release of data for January 2003, the State and area sample-based estimates have been adjusted to new benchmarks--comprehensive counts of employment--based primarily on UI reports filed by employers with State Employment Security Agencies. The revisions incorporate March 2002 benchmarks and affect data from 2001 forward. The size of employment revisions to March 2002 estimates is shown in table 1. Additional information on benchmark revisions will be published in the May issue of this publication. Over the last 5 years, the average absolute benchmark revision to State estimates of total nonfarm employment ranged from 0.4 to 0.7 percent.

Completion of the CES sample redesign

Background. Historically, the CES was based on a quota-based sample design whose inception over 50 years ago predates the introduction of probability sampling as the internationally recognized standard for sample surveys. Quota-based samples are known to be at risk for potentially significant biases; the large sample size and annual benchmark to population counts only partially mitigate the risk of bias inherent in a quota design.

In June 1995, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced plans for a comprehensive sample redesign of its monthly payroll survey. The primary goal of the redesign was to develop probability-based sampling and estimating techniques, which would in turn enable CES to produce standard survey accuracy measures and confidence intervals, and improve upon methods for estimating business births and deaths. Probability sampling was to be enhanced by improved sample solicitation techniques.

Methodology. The CES probability sample is a State-based design that minimizes variance on statewide total private nonfarm employment estimates. It is a simple random sample, stratified by industry and size, clustered by unemployment insurance (UI) report number. (UI records are the basis for the CES sampling frame and are a benchmark source.) The sample frame and the sample itself are updated twice a year, but on a lagged basis, as new quarters of UI records become available. Because of the lag in the sample frame, CES is using an ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series model to estimate the net of business births and deaths not measurable on a current basis by the sample.

The primary strength of the birth/death models is their basis in a 10-year time series from the BLS longitudinal UI database (LDB). The database stores firm-level information on business births, deaths, and employment levels. Reliance on historical trend, however, will somewhat limit the models' sensitivity to economic turning points.

The initial research phase for the CES sample redesign was completed in 1997, and the BLS launched a production test of the new sample design at that time. In March 2001, the first State and area estimates from the redesign were published, for the wholesale trade major industry division. In March 2002, the next phase was implemented with the publication of redesign estimates for the mining, construction, and manufacturing divisions. The completion of the phase-in for the redesign, in March 2003, for the remaining industries coincides with the conversion of all State and area CES series from industry coding based on the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system to industry coding based on the 2002 version of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). (1)

Conversion to the 2002 NAICS

Background. With the release of the January 2003 data, the CES program begins publishing its State and area data series under NAICS. NAICS replaces the SIC system used by U.S. statistical agencies for 60 years. Created in 1997, NAICS is a collaborative effort by Canada, Mexico, and the United States to standardize their economic data series.

In addition to providing data comparability among the North American countries, NAICS conversion carries several other positive implications. First, NAICS increases the number of industry classifications to 1,170, 15 percent more than were previously recognized under SIC. Most of this expansion comes in service-related industries, with new industries such as HMO medical centers, warehouse clubs and superstores, and bed-and-breakfast inns. Other important additions are numerous "high-tech" industries, such as cellular telecommunications and software reproduction. Second, from an organizational standpoint, NAICS is more consistent than the SIC because all industries are classified according to a single principle: similarity of production processes. The SIC had no unifying standard by which industries were categorized. Third, NAICS will be reviewed and updated every 5 years by all three North American countries. This will ensure that the classification system always captures the newest of our economy's ever-evolving industries.

NAICS doubles the amount of top-level industry groupings, known as sectors. There are 20 broad sectors, compared with only 10 major industry divisions under SIC. In addition to these sectors, BLS and its U.S. NAICS partners (the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau) have further aggregated industry classifications into 11 supersectors. Above the supersectors are two more aggregations, the commonly known domains of goods-producing and service-providing. (2)

The resulting changes are fundamental. Manufacturing, which is a NAICS sector as well as a BLS supersector, is structurally different from manufacturing under SIC. The sector has 79 new industries, including computer and electronic product manufacturing. Also notable under NAICS, publishing has been moved from manufacturing to information, and logging has been reclassified into natural resources and mining.

Another important change is the creation of an information sector. Also a BLS supersector, information contains 34 industries that produce, disseminate, or process information and cultural products. Twenty of these industries are new, including Internet service providers, sound recording studios, and cable program distributors. The remainder reflects reorganization of SIC industries, such as broadcasting and publishing.

Management of companies and enterprises (sector 55) also is the result of major structural SIC reorganization. Under SIC, corporate headquarters were treated as "auxiliary" establishments and classified in the same industry as their parent companies. NAICS treats headquarters as separate establishments and classifies them within sector 55, which is part of the BLS supersector of professional and business services.

Publication levels and data availability. NAICS conversion ultimately results in more meaningful economic data, but it presents the initial problem of discontinuity with currently published SIC series. There are 544 SIC industries that are either discontinued or unidentifiable within NAICS, compared with only 38 that are identical to a given NAICS industry. Moreover, there are 320 NAICS industries that are completely new. While the NAICS coding structure provides many new breakouts not available in the SIC system, the amount of CES published detail is constrained by the overall CES sample size.

To accommodate data users' needs for time series data, CES has reconstructed State and area all-employees series coded for NAICS back to January 1990 for most industries. Total nonfarm and total government data for each State and metropolitan area are still available for the entire history of the series. Although the logging industry was reclassified under agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting under

NAICS, it has been retained within the scope of the CES definition of nonfarm employment to preserve historical consistency.

For the purpose of comparison, the CES program has established a minimum amount of industry detail for every State and MSA. This publication structure is shown in table 2. Beyond the minimum guaranteed number of series, additional NAICS employment series are published where there is sufficient sample. The guaranteed published series add up to goods-producing, service-providing, total private, and total nonfarm employment.

Guaranteed employment series not meeting the minimum publication criteria for direct sample-based estimation are estimated using an econometric modeling technique known as the CES Small Domain Model (SDM). The SDM is a weighted least-squares-regression model based on the following inputs: (1) An estimate based on the available CES sample for that series, (2) a time series projection based on the trend from 10 years of historical data, and (3) for an MSA, an estimate borrowed from the statewide series for the same industry. The weights for each of the inputs are recalculated monthly. Most of the models are applied to smaller industries in small MSAs.

NAICS conversion has resulted in a net expansion in the number of employment-series available. There are 15,293 all-employees series published under NAICS, compared with 13,064 under the SIC. (See table 3.) The majority of CES hours and earnings series published are in manufacturing industries. The historical data were not reconstructed for NAICS hours and earnings series. The series will start with January 2001 levels set from the probability sample averages.

Reconstruction of all-employees time series data. The primary input to the reconstructed series is the LDB, which contains monthly employment levels for roughly 10 million establishments since 1990. The LDB received its first 2002 NAICS-coded data for the first quarter of 2001.

For those establishments that did not have NAICS codes on file, or that went out of business prior to March 2001, codes were imputed. If an SIC industry had a direct match in NAICS, the NAICS code was applied to the uncoded establishment. However, if an establishment's SIC did not have a direct match within NAICS, a NAICS code was assigned through an imputation procedure known as the "nearest neighbor" method. This process required use of a table that summarizes microdata across all States by ownership for possible SIC-to-NAICS combinations. An uncoded establishment was matched with a record that shared the same SIC and ownership codes, and whose average employment was closest to its own. This process thus assumed that employment is similar among establishments in the same NAICS industry. When there was more than one match, the uncoded establishment was randomly assigned a NAICS code based on the proportion of records assigned each NAICS code in a given SIC/NAICS group. For establishments that are part of a multiunit reporter, meaning that several establishments report employment and earnings data under a single UI account number, a nearest neighbor was first sought within the UI account. (3)

Once the LDB coding was accomplished, the establishment data were aggregated to produce statewide six-digit NAICS industry employment levels. These data were then further aggregated to all statewide publication levels. Similar logic was applied to MSA employment data; however, the data were aggregated based on the county code of each establishment as of the first quarter of each year. For those industries that include jobs not covered by UI laws, such as religious organizations and railroads, the noncovered portion of employment was added to the summed LDB just as it is added to covered population counts for the CES benchmark.

The greatest strength of this reconstruction methodology is its precision, as the series were summed from information on individual establishments. Also, keeping the NAICS codes constant throughout the history of the LDB lends an element of consistency to the data. Any errors, and subsequent corrections, in industry coding over the 1990-2001 period were eliminated. The major limitation to this methodology, however, was that keeping the industry code constant removed any true economic industry-code changes. The aggregate NAICS total nonfarm employment levels were controlled to previously published SIC totals. Any difference between these two levels was distributed proportionally across NAICS industries.

Modification of seasonal adjustment methodology

Background. The primary purpose of the CES program is to provide users with month-to-month changes in industry employment. However, the program also conducts an annual level adjustment for quality control known as the benchmark process. The CES benchmarking process noted above is the replacement of CES sample-based estimates with UI universe counts through the latest quarter for which data are available. Series are estimated using the sample going forward from the latest benchmark quarter.

Because the CES sample-based estimates often exhibit a seasonal pattern that is different from the pattern demonstrated by the UI universe used as the benchmark replacement series, BLS uses a hybrid series for seasonal adjustment purposes. CES uses the original sample estimates for a span of 10 years and seasonally adjusts this series; similarly, a 10-year span of benchmarked data is also seasonally adjusted. The two series are then spliced together at the end of the benchmark quarter, and the seasonal factors generated from adjusting the sample series are applied to the next 12 months of sample estimates, until the next benchmark. (4)

Impact of NAICS on data availability. The difficulty NAICS conversion brings to the seasonal adjustment process is that there is no NAICS sample estimate history available. To resolve this problem, CES applied SIC-to-NAICS employment ratios to the original SIC sample history to create a NAICS-based proxy. These estimates Were then aggregated up to the NAICS supersectors. These proxy series have limitations; however, seasonal adjustment models weight the most recent years more heavily, so the impact of the proxy series will diminish in future years. For series that altogether lacked the SIC sample history needed to create a NAICS proxy series, there will be no seasonally adjusted data published.

BLS is publishing seasonally adjusted statewide all employee series for supersectors and higher levels of aggregation, where sufficient seasonality and ratio-based sample history exist.

Statewide seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment was derived under SIC by summing the seasonally adjusted major industry divisions, which in turn were summed from seasonally adjusted two-digit industries. This practice will continue for most States under NAICS; that is, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment will be obtained by adding the adjusted supersectors. However, for cases which a State had few publishable seasonally adjusted supersectors, total nonfarm data were seasonally adjusted directly at the aggregate level. This affects only a small number of States.

Additional information

State and area employment, hours, and earnings data are available at http://www.bls.gov/sae/ on the BLS Internet site. Users may access the data via various retrieval methods at this address. Any questions on how to access the data through the Internet should be directed to [email protected]. Inquiries for additional information on the methods or estimates derived from the CES survey should be sent to: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Room 4860, 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE., Washington, DC 20212-0001. The telephone and fax numbers are (202) 691-6559 and (202) 691-6820, respectively. The e-mail address is [email protected].

Table 1. Percent differences resulting from nonfarm payroll employment
benchmarks by State, March 2002

State                    Percent
                        revision

Alabama                   -0.8
Alaska                     1.0
Arizona                     .5
Arkansas                   -.6
California                -1.2
Colorado                   -.6
Connecticut                -.1
Delaware                  -1.2
District of Columbia       2.1
Florida                    -.3
Georgia                    1.0
Hawaii                      .3
Idaho                     -1.2
Illinois                   -.9
Indiana                    -.8
Iowa                      -1.2
Kansas                    -2.1
Kentucky                  -2.0
Louisiana                 -1.9
Maine                      -.8
Maryland                    .9
Massachusetts             -1.4
Michigan                  -2.0
Minnesota                  -.5
Mississippi                -.8
Missouri                    .6
Montana                    -.2
Nebraska                   -.6
Nevada                    -2.1
New Hampshire             -1.2
New Jersey                 -.2
New Mexico                  .1
New York                   -.9
North Carolina             -.9
North Dakota              -1.1
Ohio                      -1.5
Oklahoma                  -1.8
Oregon                     -.7
Pennsylvania                .0
Rhode Island               -.5
South Carolina            -1.6
South Dakota              -1.0
Tennessee                 -2.1
Texas                      -.2
Utah                       -.1
Vermont                     .6
Virginia                   -.3
Washington                 -.2
West Virginia              -.1
Wisconsin                 -1.4
Wyoming                    -.5

Table 2. Minimum CES State and area publication detail

BLS code        NAICS code                    Industry

00-000000  -                     Total nonfarm
05-000000  -                       Total private (total nonfarm less
                                      government)
06-000000  10, 20, 30                Goods-producing
10-000000  1133 (logging), 21         Natural resources and mining (1)
20-000000  23                         Construction
30-000000  31-33                      Manufacturing
07-000000  40-90                     Service-providing
                                       Trade, transportation, and
40-000000  42, 44-45, 48-49, 22           utilities
41-000000  42                            Wholesale trade
42-000000  44-45                         Retail trade
                                         Transportation and warehousing
43-000000  48-49, 22                       and utilities
50-000000  51                          Information
55-000000  52-53                       Financial activities
                                       Professional and business
60-000000  54-56                         services
                                       Educational services and health
65-000000  61-62                         services
70-000000  71-72                       Leisure and hospitality
                                       Other services, except public
80-000000  81                            administration
                                   Government (defined by ownership)
90-000000  -                         (2)
90-910000  -                           Federal
90-920000  -                           State
90-930000  -                           Local

(1) Natural resources and mining may be combined with
construction if there is insufficient sample to publish mining alone.

(2) Some MSAs do not publish all the government publication detail
due to small sample sizes.

Table 3. CES State and area employment series:
Publication structure

                  Number     SIC       NAICS
      Area          of    published  published  Difference
   employment     areas    series     series

  Statewide         51      4,020      4,989       969
MSA>1,000,000       29      1,880      2,300       420
500,000-999,999     35      1,491      1,936       445
250,000-499,999     41      1,411      1,490        79
100,000-249,999     97      2,533      2,719       186
MSA<100,000         85      1,729      1,859       130

Total              338     13,064     15,293      2,229

Summary table A. Major labor force status categories, seasonally
adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)

                                                    2002
Category
                                        Feb.      Mar.      Apr.

                                            Labor force status

Civilian noninstitutional population   216,663   216,823   217,006
 Civilian labor force                  144,510   144,367   144,763
   Percent of population                  66.7      66.6      66.7
  Employed                             136,450   136,143   136,196
   Percent of population                  63.0      62.8      62.8
  Unemployed                             8,060     8,224     8,567
 Not in labor force                     72,153    72,456    72,243

                                            Unemployment rates

All workers                                5.6       5.7       5.9
   Men, 20 years and over                  5.0       5.2       5.3
   Women, 20 years and over                5.0       5.0       5.3
   Both sexes, 16 to 19 years             16.0      16.6      16.9
   White                                   4.9       5.0       5.2
   Black or African American               9.7      10.4      10.8
   Hispanic or Latino ethnicity            7.0       7.3       7.9

                                                    2002
Category
                                        May       June      July

                                            Labor force status

Civilian noninstitutional population   217,198   217,407   217,630
 Civilian labor force                  144,911   144,852   144,786
   Percent of population                  66.7      66.6      66.5
  Employed                             136,487   136,383   136,343
   Percent of population                  62.8      62.7      62.6
  Unemployed                             8,424     8,469     8,443
 Not in labor force                     72,287    72,556    72,844

                                            Unemployment rates

All workers                                5.8       5.8       5.8
   Men, 20 years and over                  5.2       5.4       5.3
   Women, 20 years and over                5.2       5.1       5.1
   Both sexes, 16 to 19 years             17.0      16.9      17.0
   White                                   5.2       5.2       5.2
   Black or African American              10.1      10.6       9.9
   Hispanic or Latino ethnicity            7.1       7.4       7.5

                                                    2002
Category
                                        Aug.     Sept.      Oct.

                                            Labor force status

Civilian noninstitutional population   217,866   218,340   218,340
 Civilian labor force                  145,123   145,393   145,393
   Percent of population                  66.6      66.6      66.6
  Employed                             136,757   136,988   136,988
   Percent of population                  62.8      62.7      62.7
  Unemployed                             8,366     8,405     8,405
 Not in labor force                     72,743    72,947    72,947

                                            Unemployment rates

All workers                                5.8       5.7       5.8
   Men, 20 years and over                  5.3       5.3       5.4
   Women, 20 years and over                5.0       5.0       5.2
   Both sexes, 16 to 19 years             16.9      16.2      15.1
   White                                   5.1       5.1       5.1
   Black or African American               9.9       9.8       9.9
   Hispanic or Latino ethnicity            7.6       7.5       7.8

                                              2002
Category
                                        Nov.      Dec.

                                       Labor force status

Civilian noninstitutional population   218,548   218,741
 Civilian labor force                  145,180   145,150
   Percent of population                  66.4      66.4
  Employed                             137,542   136,439
   Percent of population                  62.5      62.4
  Unemployed                             8,637     8,711
 Not in labor force                     73,369    73,591

                                       Unemployment rates

All workers                                5.9       6.0
   Men, 20 years and over                  5.6       5.6
   Women, 20 years and over                5.0       5.2
   Both sexes, 16 to 19 years             16.8      16.4
   White                                   5.2       5.1
   Black or African American              10.8      11.2
   Hispanic or Latino ethnicity            7.8       7.9

                                              2003
Category
                                        Jan.      Feb.

                                       Labor force status

Civilian noninstitutional population   219,897   220,114
 Civilian labor force                  145,838   145,857
   Percent of population                  66.3      66.3
  Employed                             137,536   137,408
   Percent of population                  62.5      62.4
  Unemployed                             8,302     8,450
 Not in labor force                     74,059    74,257

                                       Unemployment rates

All workers                                5.7       5.8
   Men, 20 years and over                  5.4       5.3
   Women, 20 years and over                4.7       5.0
   Both sexes, 16 to 19 years             16.8      17.1
   White                                   5.1       5.0
   Black or African American              10.3      10.5
   Hispanic or Latino ethnicity            7.8       7.7

NOTE: Beginning in January 2003, data reflect revised population
controls used in the household survey.

Summary table B. Employment, hours, and earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)

                                                    2002
Industry
                                         Feb.       Mar.       Apr.

                                                  Employment

  Total                                  130,706    130,701    130,680
 Total private                           109,544    109,505    109,495
Goods-producing industries                24,041     23,975     23,905
 Mining                                      564        560        564
 Construction                              6,597      6,593      6,541
 Manufacturing                            16,880     16,822     16,800
Service-producing industries             106,665    106,726    106,775
 Transportation and public utilities       6,837      6,814      6,799
 Wholesale trade                           6,689      6,681      6,678
 Retail trade                             23,331     23,332     23,345
 Finance, insurance, and real estate       7,745      7,740      7,743
 Services                                 40,901     40,963     41,025
 Government                               21,162     21,196     21,185

                                              Over-the-month change

  Total                                  -165        -5         -21
 Total private                           -190       -39         -10
Goods-producing industries                -89       -66         -70
 Mining                                    -4        -4           4
 Construction                             -18        -4         -52
 Manufacturing                            -67       -58         -22
Service-producing industries              -76        61          49
 Transportation and public utilities      -13       -23         -15
 Wholesale trade                          -13        -8          -3
 Retail trade                             -65         1          13
 Finance, insurance, and real estate       -3        -5           3
 Services                                  -7        62          62
 Government                                25        34         -11

                                                Hours of work (1)

Total private                            34.2       34.2       34.2
 Manufacturing                           40.7       41.0       40.9
  Overtime                                3.9        4.1        4.2

                                        Indexes of aggregate weekly
                                            hours (1982=100) (1)

Total private                            148.1      148.0      148.0
 Manufacturing                           92.8       93.0       92.9

                                                  Earnings (1)

Average hourly earnings, total
 private:
 Current dollars                        $14.61     $14.64     $14.66
 Constant (1982) dollars (2)              8.14       8.13       8.10
Average weekly earnings, total
 private                                499.66     500.69     501.37

                                                    2002
Industry
                                          May       June       July

                                                  Employment

  Total                                  130,702    130,736    130,790
 Total private                           109,496    109,525    109,562
Goods-producing industries                23,870     23,861     23,812
 Mining                                      558        555        551
 Construction                              6,541      6,549      6,519
 Manufacturing                            16,771     16,757     16,742
Service-producing industries             106,832    106,875    106,978
 Transportation and public utilities       6,793      6,790      6,780
 Wholesale trade                           6,681      6,681      6,679
 Retail trade                             23,327     23,308     23,339
 Finance, insurance, and real estate       7,732      7,733      7,737
 Services                                 41,093     41,152     41,215
 Government                               21,206     21,211     21,228

                                             Over-the-month change

  Total                                    22         34          54
 Total private                              1         29          37
Goods-producing industries                -35         -9         -49
 Mining                                    -6         -3          -4
 Construction                               0          8         -30
 Manufacturing                            -29        -14         -15
Service-producing industries               57         43         103
 Transportation and public utilities       -6         -3         -10
 Wholesale trade                            3          0          -2
 Retail trade                             -18        -19          31
 Finance, insurance, and real estate      -11          1           4
 Services                                  68         59          63
 Government                                21          5          17

                                               House of work (1)

Total private                            34.2       34.3       34.0
 Manufacturing                           40.9       41.1       40.7
  Overtime                                4.2        4.3        4.0

                                        Indexes of aggregate weekly
                                            hours (1982=100) (1)

Total private                           148.0      148.4      147.4
 Manufacturing                           92.8       93.2       92.3

                                                  Earnings (1)

Average hourly earnings, total
 private:
 Current dollars                       $14.69     $14.74     $14.76
 Constant (1982) dollars (2)             8.11       8.13       8.12
Average hourly earnings, total
 private                               502.40     505.58     501.84

                                                    2002
Industry
                                         Aug.       Sept.      Oct.

                                                  Employment

  Total                                  130,913    130,829    130,898
 Total private                           109,624    109,536    109,549
Goods-producing industries                23,801     23,748     23,688
 Mining                                      555        552        552
 Construction                              6,556      6,556      6,544
 Manufacturing                            16,690     16,640     16,592
Service-producing industries             107,112    107,081    107,210
 Transportation and public utilities       6,765      6,725      6,727
 Wholesale trade                           6,671      6,663      6,657
 Retail trade                             23,295     23,291     23,289
 Finance, insurance, and real estate       7,745      7,773      7,803
 Services                                 41,347     41,336     41,385
 Government                               21,289     21,293     21,349

                                              Over-the-month change

  Total                                   123        -84         69
 Total private                             62        -88         13
Goods-producing industries                -11        -53        -60
 Mining                                     4         -3          0
 Construction                              37          0        -12
 Manufacturing                            -52        -50        -48
Service-producing industries              134        -31        129
 Transportation and public utilities      -15        -40          2
 Wholesale trade                           -8         -8         -6
 Retail trade                             -44         -4         -2
 Finance, insurance, and real estate        8         28         30
 Services                                 132        -11         49
 Government                                61          4         56

                                               House of work (1)

Total private                            34.1       34.2       34.2
 Manufacturing                           40.9       40.8       40.7
  Overtime                                4.2        4.1        4.1

                                        Indexes of aggregate weekly
                                            hours (1982=100) (1)

Total private                           147.9      148.3      148.1
 Manufacturing                           92.5       91.9       91.5

                                                  Earnings (1)

Average hourly earnings, total
 private:
 Current dollars                       $14.83     $14.85     $14.90
 Constant (1982) dollars (2)             8.14       8.13       8.15
Average hourly earnings, total
 private                               505.70     507.87     509.58

                                                2002
Industry
                                         Nov.       Dec.

                                             Employment

  Total                                  130,817    130,670
 Total private                           109,311    109,311
Goods-producing industries                23,631     23,551
 Mining                                      551        553
 Construction                              6,543      6,544
 Manufacturing                            16,537     16,454
Service-producing industries             107,186    107,119
 Transportation and public utilities       6,721      6,686
 Wholesale trade                           6,643      6,637
 Retail trade                             23,247     23,152
 Finance, insurance, and real estate       7,807      7,816
 Services                                 41,404     41,469
 Government                               21,364     21,359

                                       Over-the-month change

  Total                                   -81       -147
 Total private                            -96       -142
Goods-producing industries                -57        -80
 Mining                                    -1          2
 Construction                              -1          1
 Manufacturing                            -55        -83
Service-producing industries              -24        -67
 Transportation and public utilities       -6        -35
 Wholesale trade                          -14         -6
 Retail trade                             -42        -95
 Finance, insurance, and real estate        4          9
 Services                                  19         65
 Government                                15         -5

                                         Hours of work (1)

Total private                            34.2       34.1
 Manufacturing                           40.6       40.9
  Overtime                                4.0        4.2

                                       Indexes of aggregate
                                            weekly hours
                                           (1982=100) (1)

Total private                           147.9      147.7
 Manufacturing                           90.8       91.0

                                           Earnings (1)

Average hourly earnings, total
 private:
 Current dollars                       $14.94     $14.98
 Constant (1982) dollars (2)             8.16       8.18
Average hourly earnings, total
 private                               510.95     510.82

                                                2003
Industry
                                       Jan. (p)   Feb. (p)

                                             Employment

  Total                                  130,855    130,547
 Total private                           109,485    109,164
Goods-producing industries                23,570     23,466
 Mining                                      550        547
 Construction                              6,570      6,522
 Manufacturing                            16,450     16,397
Service-producing industries             107,285    107,081
 Transportation and public utilities       6,684      6,643
 Wholesale trade                           6,638      6,637
 Retail trade                             23,268     23,176
 Finance, insurance, and real estate       7,812      7,815
 Services                                 41,513     41,427
 Government                               21,370     21,383

                                       Over-the-month change

  Total                                   185       -308
 Total private                            174       -321
Goods-producing industries                 19       -104
 Mining                                    -3         -3
 Construction                              26        -48
 Manufacturing                             -4        -53
Service-producing industries              166       -204
 Transportation and public utilities       -2        -41
 Wholesale trade                            1         -1
 Retail trade                             116        -92
 Finance, insurance, and real estate       -4          3
 Services                                  44        -86
 Government                                11         13

                                         Hours of Work (1)

Total private                            34.3       34.1
 Manufacturing                           40.8       40.8
  Overtime                                4.1        4.2

                                       Indexes of aggregate
                                            weekly hours
                                           (1982=100) (1)

Total private                           148.5      147.0
 Manufacturing                           91.0       90.3

                                              Earnings

Average hourly earnings, total
 private:
 Current dollars                       $14.97     $15.08
 Constant (1982) dollars (2)             8.14       N.A.
Average hourly earnings, total
 private                               513.47     514.23

(1) Data relate to private production or nonsupervisory workers.

(2) The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
Workers (CPI-W) is used to deflate this series. Data have been
revised to reflect updated seasonal adjustment factors used in the
CPI-W.

N.A. = not available.

(p) = preliminary.

NOTE: Establishment survey estimates currently reflect March 2001
benchmark levels. When more recent benchmark data are introduced
with the release of May 2003 estimates, all data will be converted
to the North American Industry Classification System. See editor's
note on the first page of this publication for additional information.

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