Economic activity expands
Bjorn HansonFor the one-month period ending March 3, the PricewaterhouseCoopers' lodging C-Corp index increased approximately 3.6 percent, while PWC's lodging real-estate investment trust index decreased 0.2 percent. The S&P 500 increased 1.3 percent during the same period.
Reports from the Institute of Supply Management and the Federal Reserve Beige Book indicated that economic activity continued to expand in February. The ISM manufacturing activity index rose for the ninth consecutive month, while the Beige Book reported increased retail sales, improving demand for various services and improved leasing activity of commercial real-estate in some markets.
Several Federal Reserve District Banks reported improved tourism activity thus far in 2004, a trend that is consistent with year-over-year increases in lodging demand and room rates.
Dec-'03 Jan-'04 Feb-'04 U.S. lodging industry RevPAR 3.6% 4.8% 5.8% (% change, previous year) Percentage change from Dec-'03 Jan-'04 Feb-'04 previous month University of Michigan Consumer 92.6 103.8 93.1 Sentiment Index Chicago Purchasing Managers 61.2 65.9 63.6 Business Barometer Index Nov-'03 Dec-'03 Jan-'04 Manufacturers' new orders -0.9 1.8 -0.5 Manufacturers' inventories -0.1 0.1 0.2 Private nonresidential 1.1 0.9 -0.5 construction spending Real weekly earnings 0.8 -1 0.2 Consumer price index--all items -0.2 0.2 0.5 Consumer price index--all items 0 0.1 0.2 minus food & energy Help wanted index 39 37 38 Mass layoff events 1,438 1,929 2,428 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Labor, Smith Travel Research, International Council of Shopping Centers, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan, National Association of Purchasing Management, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics Top Declines * Wyndham International -16.7% * InnSuites Hospitality Trust -15.1% * FelCor Lodging Trust -9.5% * Arlington Hospitality -8.8% * MeriStar Hospitality Corp. -7.6% Top Advances * Choice Hotels International 17.1% * Orient Express Hotels Ltd. 12.2% * John Q. Hammons Hotels 11.6% * Logdian 11.4% * Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide 10.0%
Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D., is industry leader, hospitality and leisure, for PricewaterhouseCoopers, which offers hotel consulting, forecasting and analysis services.
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