The perfect timing for the 'perfect storm'

In October 1991, three weather systems collided off the coast of Nova Scotia to create a storm of singular fury, boasting waves more than 100 feet high.

Among its victims was the swordfishing boat the Andrea Gail, which vanished with all six crew members aboard.

It was "The Storm of the Century," a tempest created by such a rare combination of factors that meteorologists deemed it "the perfect storm." Yet it struck without warning. "She's comin' on, boys, and she's comin' on strong," radioed Captain Billy Tyne of the Andrea Gail off the coast of Nova Scotia, and soon afterward the boat and its crew disappeared without a trace.

What does the "Perfect Storm" have to do with the timing of your new business venture?

You may have the most brilliant, "once in a century" idea imaginable, and you and the experts may be convinced that your idea will impact the daily lives of virtually every person in the country - - or perhaps the world. But the rare combination of factors that will enable your new product or innovation to mature and to gain universal acceptance may be dependent upon something completely out of your control.

The challenge may be like trying to float a large and heavily laden ship in a shallow harbor, knowing that you can't begin your long and exciting voyage until the tide comes in. Of course, you have no control over the tide, but you do know that it will come in, and you know when to expect it. In the case of your business, the challenge might be unpredictable: excessively high interest rates for a business loan, dried up venture capital because of an economic downturn, or the need to complete a new highway or interchange that will bring traffic to your location.

Your challenge is to recognize the factors that are essential to your success, paying particular attention to those over which you have no direct control. In most startups that have great potential, there are many stakeholders -- investors, customers, competitors, local governments, media, suppliers, strategic partners and so forth. Each of these independent participants will make choices that are in their own selfish best interest without regard to the final outcome that should benefit all of the participants.

The complexity increases when we realize that the independent choice of one participant influences the decisions of others. The rate of adoption of the fax machine a few decades ago is an excellent example. People decided whether or not to purchase a fax machine based upon how they personally valued the machine. However, the perceived value increased rapidly as others adopted the new technology.

Your business plan will be launched like a rocket if you can help each independent participant recognize that his or her own selfish interest will be satisfied by your product or innovation. If you can get all participants to make the right choice at the same time you will enjoy the equivalent of The Perfect Storm, with a rare combination of factors that will result in The Perfect Timing to embark upon your venture.

The message is that to be successful, an entrepreneur will have analyzed each of these factors -- especially those that he knows he can't control -- and he will have a strategy to deal with each situation. He understands the impact of favorable timing on the rate of acceptance of his idea and the cost to bring it to market. Unfortunately, perfect timing, like the perfect storm, may occur only once in 100 years, and a real entrepreneur won't wait for that level of perfection.

David M. Brown is affiliated with the BYU Center for Entrepreneurship. He can be reached via e-mail at [email protected].

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