U.S. on edge before Iraqi voting

WASHINGTON -- In the run-up to Iraq's elections, the State Department's spokesman this week ticked off the final markers of progress: 130 planeloads of voting materials had landed in Iraq, including 90,000 ballot boxes and 60 million ballots -- a flurry of up to 15 flights a day to Iraqi airfields. In a last-minute American role, officials said, the U.S. military will assist today in distributing the equipment to polling stations.

To ease a bad case of nerves spreading among Iraq's neighbors, the Bush administration has also scrambled in recent days to assuage alarm about the potential consequences of -- and spillover from -- Iraq's elections on the region, U.S. officials said.

But as Sunday's voting begins, the Bush administration can do little more than hold its breath and wait as Iraqis decide whether to participate in the historic balloting. The elections are the biggest test yet for the costly and complex U.S. military intervention in Iraq aimed at ousting Saddam Hussein almost two years ago, U.S. officials acknowledged.

President Bush on Friday declared the process a success simply because the elections will go ahead despite the escalating attacks by insurgents and the myriad political pressures to delay the vote.

"Freedom is on the march, and the world is better for it," Bush said at the formal swearing-in of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Bush lauded Iraqis for their courage in refusing "to surrender their future to these killers."

The president also predicted that Iraq's fledgling democracy will become "a powerful example to reformers throughout the entire Middle East."

"On Sunday, the Iraqi people will be joining millions in other parts of the world who now decide their future through free votes," Bush told the foreign diplomatic corps at Rice's swearing-in.

Based on the most recent U.S. polling, the administration is cautiously optimistic about the turnout, which may prove to be the main barometer of the elections, since no international monitoring group will be deployed at polling stations to assess whether the voting is free and fair. The U.S. survey, conducted this month, shows that 50 percent to 60 percent of Iraqis are "very likely" or "intend" to vote in most areas, according to a senior State Department official.

More than 60 percent showed interest in voting in northern Kurdish areas and major southern Shiite cities such as Basra, Najaf, Karbala and Hilla. In hot spots in the volatile Sunni triangle, such as Tikrit and Baqubah, the numbers drop to about a third of eligible voters, the official said.

These figures are down about 20 percent from the previous poll, conducted late last year. But U.S. officials say any turnout that gets more than half of Iraq's 14 million voters to the polls will be enough for the declaration of a major success -- and will be comparable to recent turnouts in U.S. presidential elections.

U.S. hopes for respectable numbers got a boost Friday from U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, who issued a call for all Iraqis to vote even if they oppose the U.S. invasion and the subsequent occupation.

"Elections are the best way to determine any country's future. Please exercise your democratic rights on Sunday," Annan said in a message released by the United Nations. "Whatever your feelings about how the country reached this point, this election offers an opportunity to move away from violence and uncertainty toward peace and representative government."

U.S. analysts cautioned that a healthy turnout does not mean Iraqis endorse the U.S. policy on Iraq. "The election is a validation of the removal of Saddam Hussein, but it should not be seen as a sign of approval of the U.S. presence there now," said Judith Yaphe, a former CIA analyst now at National Defense University.

The administration has worked hard to reassure Iraq's neighbors and to promote the benefits of the elections. The reasons vary widely from nation to nation, but Arabs, Turks, Iranians and others share unsettling fears about how the vote tomorrow will alter the region's traditional balance of power and economic relationships, according to U.S. officials and Middle East analysts.

In the 22-nation Arab bloc, the distinct prospect of a Shiite- dominated government in Iraq causes the deepest anxiety among Sunni Muslims, who have largely dominated Middle East societies since the faith was founded 15 centuries ago. Shiites have been a largely disenfranchised underclass even where they are the majority -- as in Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon.

Several Sunni governments have expressed concern to the United States that a Shiite government -- the first in the Arab world -- could inspire the rise of a new Shiite "crescent" stretching from Iran on the Persian Gulf to Lebanon on the Mediterranean, U.S. officials said.

For some in the region, the balloting is a worrisome prospect whether it succeeds or fails.

If the voting is deemed credible, some fear it will embolden those who say "send in the Marines and change regimes and redraw the map," said Rami Khouri, editor of Lebanon's Daily Star.

And if the elections are judged a failure because of violence or other factors, some fear that outcome would create a sense that extremists have the upper hand, fueling insurgent movements not just in Iraq but elsewhere in the region, analysts said.

"For people in this region, the reality has dawned as election day nears that there is no good outcome. Every outcome has serious consequences, and every outcome is pretty scary," Khouri said.

The Persian Gulf sheikdoms feel particularly vulnerable. Saudi Arabia is estimated to have more than 1 million Shiites, most of whom live in the oil-rich eastern province. Saudi Shiites were involved in a series of rare anti-government protests in the early 1980s -- after predominantly Shiite Iran's 1979 revolution inspired Shiite communities elsewhere -- because the oil revenue from their region mainly benefited the Sunni population.

"At the core of Saudi concern is this prejudice against the Shia they never enunciate in a policy. They just cite the Iranian bogeyman," said an administration official, referring to Iran's Shiite theocracy. "That's not something we see happening."

As a result, the Bush administration has been conducting a lot of diplomatic hand-holding in recent weeks to allay fears -- and to point out the realities of change. In telephone calls and meetings in Washington and the region, senior administration officials have tried to convince Arab and Turkish leaders particularly that the region is headed for change -- but not chaos.

"This is the tide of history," said the administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive diplomacy involved. "This is recognition of a reality that has existed for a long time and only been denied by extreme violence. So get used to it."

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