Welcome To The Matrix - Industry Trend or Event

Bruce Claflin of 3Com and Peter Solvik of Cisco peer into the not-so-distant future.

While 2000 may be remembered as the year the Internet bubble popped, it was also when networking started making good on its promise. Broadband Net access has begun spilling out of phone wires and cable lines, wireless home networking is threatening to become a consumer market, and mobile phones are sending and receiving e-mail more or less reliably. So what's next? We asked two people who are playing a big part in designing the future of networking to tell us where the industry is headed.

Peter Solvik is senior VP and chief information officer of Cisco Systems, the 800-pound gorilla of the networking industry. Since joining the company in 1993, he's overseen the company's global use of information technology. Under his watch this year, Cisco has completely redesigned its Web presence, using a sophisticated online customer support system to keep Cisco's rapid growth from overwhelming the company's infrastructure. Solvik also spends much of his time cultivating relationships with Cisco's strategic partners. Wired guy that he is, Solvik spoke to The Standard from his car at 7:30 a.m. on the way to work.

We also spoke with 3Com's newly appointed CEO Bruce Claflin. 3Com finds itself under the microscope as it faces a major transition. For years the No. 2 networking company, 3Com has faltered recently and seen its market share and stock price erode while other companies have pulled ahead. Claflin joined 3Com as president and chief operating officer in 1998. He appears confident that 3Com's best days are ahead and that the increasing permeation of networking into every facet of life means good things for the Internet business, despite any short-term ups and downs. He spoke to us from 3Com headquarters in Redwood City, Calif.

What do you think the Internet's infrastructure will look like in the future?

BRUCE CLAFLIN: In today's world, networks are purpose-built. There's a voice network, cellular networks, data networks -- and they tend to be separate. In the future, networks are going to converge. They'll transmit voice, data, video and fax, and they'll do it whether you're connected to a wire or wireless. And the requirement today for separate devices and separate networks will go away. Networks are on the path to being pervasive. Individuals will be connected to networks multiple times throughout their day, oftentimes not even knowing it, getting access to information as if the information were a pure utility.

Following the utility metaphor: Will information in the future mimic the present state of our electrical system?

BC: Today, when someone goes to a network connection it is typically a conscious act. Usually it happens through a line, some kind of tether or physical connection, in order to discretely get information. What we're talking about in the future is that, instead of people going to networks, the networks will be with you. The information itself becomes like electricity -- in fact, we call it "datatricity" in our model.

You've mentioned wireless. What part is 3Com going to play in developing wireless?

BC: We think that personal area wireless networks like Bluetooth are a major part of this concept of pervasive networking. Think of it as a network in your pocket that literally synchronizes all the devices you might carry around and then uses one of them to go out [over a] wide area.

kinds of tools and applications are we going to see?

BC: We see a new class of devices being built from the ground up to be network-connected and appliance-like in their function. Where the PC excels because it's multipurpose, these devices will be purpose-built to deliver one type of application, but they will do it very simply, very easily, in an intuitive way.

Pervasive networking assumes that bandwidth is going to become a lot cheaper, right?

BC: Yes, We're all familiar with Moore's Law, but nothing is surpassing Photonics Law, which talks about the doubling of [bandwidth] every six months. We've got a rate of growth of capacity and price performance in optical networking that is three times what we've known with semiconductors. We believe that bandwidth will become - I won't say "free" - but hugely inexpensive.

How do you see the Internet changing in the next few years?

BC: The biggest trend we see is the idea that intelligence increasingly moves to the edge of the network. As simply moving bits becomes more commodity-like, what people want is more and better services from the network. That means that they want the devices that connect to the network to be able to do more, and they want the provisioning of service to be instantly available.

How has the recent collapse of so many Internet companies hit 3Com?

BC: There is clearly a softening of the economy in general around the world, and there is far less, and far more expensive, capital flowing into networking today. But I don't believe for a minute that we're seeing any change to the long-term prognosis for networking [increasing]. I will bet my life. But I can also guarantee that it won't be a straight line. There will be ebbs and flows.

What do you think the future of Internet infrastructure will be and how will it differ from the present?

PETER SOLVIK: It's our belief that the Internet will become the network of networks, and that the convergence of data, video and voice will continue. The benefit of this is that you will have all the various, previously incompatible networks converging to become much more cost-effective, have higher bandwidth, be much more feature-filled, and really beginning to reach into the fabric of people's lives in every way.

What do you see as Cisco's target market in the future? And are you seeing any shifts in who is purchasing your products?

PS: We see more and more people turning to service providers to take on the job of bringing Internet connectivity to their large or small business, or even to families. We follow the market.

How will the creation of billions of new IP addresses by IPv6, the next-generation Internet protocol standard, change things?

PS: The major shift is away from the thought of the Internet being a personal computer running a Web browser. I'm not predicting that this will all become commonplace in 12 or 24 months, but you'll see synchronization of all your various devices, and management of those devices - energy management, lifestyle management and commerce management.

How is the network changing companies?

PS: I see it flattening the hierarchies of companies. The senior leaders are highly visible and they're communicating frequently to all the employees several times a week. I see a lot of companies that are not organizing around geography, so an R&D team working on a single product could be 30 percent in Israel, 30 percent in India and 30 percent in Silicon Valley.

Is Cisco going to have products in the future that are intended for consumer use?

PS: We will clearly have impact in the domestic consumer-use area, but what we primarily want to do is have building-block impact by licensing technology to companies that are developing [consumer] products. Are we going to become a consumer product company selling household devices with our name on them? No.

Andrew Rice is a technology writer based in Los Angeles.

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