文章基本信息

标题：Camp connection - a look ahead at the 1999-2000 NFL season, including highlights of the AFC East, which some say will be the league's toughest division
作者：Chris Jenkins
期刊名称：The Sporting News
印刷版ISSN：0038-805X
出版年度：1999
卷号：July 19, 1999
出版社：American City Business Journals, Inc.

Camp connection - a look ahead at the 1999-2000 NFL season, including highlights of the AFC East, which some say will be the league's toughest division

Chris Jenkins

With the NFL's annual of summer about to begin, her are some things to keep an eye on at training camps

Patriots vice president of player personnel Bobby Grier calls the AFC East the toughest division in football, and we agree. Four of the division's five teams were good enough to make the playoffs last year. Masterminds such as Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells are drawing up game plans, and the likes of Keyshawn Johnson and Bruce Smith are constantly sending them back to the chalkboard. When December comes, home-field advantage really means something in Buffalo, the Meadowlands and Foxboro. But the real strength of this division is its quarterbacks. We haven't seen this many good passes since Sam Malone closed up shop on Cheers.

Dan Marino will be a Hall of Famer, and Drew Bledsoe and Peyton Manning eventually could be. Doug Flutie and Vinny Testaverde found their games too late to think about Canton, but both proved last year that they are just as dangerous with the ball in their hands.

How air-oriented is this division? The Bills' average passing yards per game (211.3) was the lowest in the AFC East but still good enough to rank 12th in the league. The Bills also were the only AFC East team to crack the top 10 in rushing. "We all know that everybody stresses the running game, everybody wants to run the football," Grier says. "But there are times in this division when the games are tight when the ball's going to be in the quarterback's hands. And he's going to be the guy to ultimately decide if you win or lose."

So don't be surprised if the race for the division title comes down to the team that racks up the most sacks, interceptions and deflections this year. Bills G.M. John Butler spent a first-round pick on cornerback Antoine Winfield despite having Thomas Smith and Ken Irvin.

Here's a quick look at each team's pass defense heading into training camp:

DOLPHINS 1968 vs. pass: 6th

Miami has a dangerous pass rush and three good cornerbacks but questions at both safety spots. Brock Marion, a free-agent pickup last season, wasn't consistent enough at free safety. Neither was Calvin Jackson at strong safety. Shawn Wooden returns from injury to give Jackson some competition.

JETS 1998 vs. pass: 9th

With the exception of Pro Bowl corner Aaron Glenn, this defense gets by more on discipline than on talent. Bill Belichick's schemes gave Flutie fits last season. Safety Steve Atwater comes over from the Broncos, but how much does he have left?

BILLS 1998 vs. pass: 14th

Undersized but a hard hitter, Winfield gives the Bills three good cornerbacks. Bruce Smith leads what should again be a good pass rash. But will the safeties hold up their end of the bargain?

COLTS 1998 vs. pass: 16th

Bill Polian didn't get his money's worth from free agents Jeff Burris and Tyrone Poole in 1998. But if free-agent defensive end Chad Bratzke can at least make the pass rush respectable, the Colts will look better. New strong safety Chad Cota will help, too.

PATRIOTS 1998 vs. pass: 25th

When Deion Sanders is on the sideline, Ty Law is the best cornerback in the game. Lawyer Milloy and Willie Clay are a great safety combination. But is Tebucky Jones ready to take over the other corner spot? The pass rush also is a question mark.

What's new?

The Browns. Smart football guys like Carmen Policy and Dwight Clark know a strong offensive line makes average skill-position players look good. We like Tim Couch and love Kevin Johnson. But unless seventh-round pick Madre Hill turns out to be the next Terrell Davis/Jamal Anderson, giddy Cleveland fans shouldn't expect this team to follow in the Panthers' and Jaguars' footsteps with a conference title game berth in the second season.

Six rookie coaches. With Chris Palmer taking over in Cleveland and Dick Jauron in Chicago, is Jacksonville on its way to taking San Francisco's title as the "cradle of coaches"? Maybe. Palmer and Jauron are pretty typical of a crop of first-time head coaches that also includes Brian Billick (Ravens), Gunther Cunningham (Chiefs), Andy Reid (Eagles) and Mike Riley (Chargers). With the exception of the emotional Cunningham and the engaging Billick, these guys are cut from the Mike Shanahan mold: understated, maybe even boring, but players will know who the boss is.

Five rookie quarterbacks. Which first-rounder plays first? We'll give you two McGuesses. Tim Couch and Akili Smith need seasoning. Daunte Culpepper will mop up when the score gets out of hand (but with the Vikings, that might be often). That leaves us with Donovan McNabb and Cade McNown, the only two quarterbacks in this class who started four years at big-time programs. McNown looks good, and Erik Kramer's shoulder injury still is giving him problems. But McNabb is most likely to start. Impatient Philly fans will want McNabb to start proving them wrong in Week 1, and Reid might be confident enough in his young quarterback to consider caving in.

Bubbylicious

Guess this is where we're supposed to repeat what every coach in the AFC is saying (in public, that is): The Broncos are still title favorites with Bubby Brister at quarterback instead of John Elway. Sorry, but we just can't do it. Spending a week preparing to defend Elway and/or Brister is one thing. Preparing for just Brister is quite another.

Granted, Brister might be the best quarterback in the AFC West. Would you trade him for Elvis Grbac, Rich Gannon, Jim Harbaugh or Jon Kitna? Maybe Gannon, but you get the point. Still, keep an eye on Brian Griese's progress during camp. He hasn't mastered the offense yet. But with Jeff Lewis traded to Carolina, Griese is the long-term guy. If Brister struggles and the Broncos stumble to a 2-2 start, Griese will push for time.

And Shanahan needs to take it easy on his superstar. Nobody has handled more of the load than Terrell Davis has the last two seasons. Because he has been used so much--he carried the ball an AFC-record 392 times last season and has averaged 24 carries a game over the past two years--he has been banged up at the end of both seasons. Davis is the bailout option for Brister, but he won't be if he is worn down when the Broncos really need him.

Purple problems?

Sing it, Shania! OK, so you've got a record-setting offense. That don't impress me much ...

Somebody explain this one. The Broncos lose one of the best quarterbacks in history while the Falcons make some nice, conservative tweaks to their lineup. Yet it's still easier to find a car sporting a "Quayle for President" bumper sticker than it is to find somebody who thinks the Falcons have a better chance of returning to the Super Bowl than the Broncos do.

Must have something to do with the Vikings. It's logical to assume they'll win the NFC, especially when you hear Dennis Green saying Randy Moss' ankle was no better than 85 percent healthy last season. Yikes. Still, this team has plenty of questions to answer during camp, such as:

Can Ray Sherman keep it going? The man who took the fall for Kordell Stewart's collapse in Pittsburgh won't tinker too much to begin with, but the challenge will come when he has to make adjustments. Then again, Moss & Co. can make a coach look smart.

Will Randall McDaniel play? A dominant offensive line was the difference between the Vikings and the 49ers last season, and losing McDaniel would make the league's best pass-blocking offensive fine merely above average. Trading Everett Lindsay, their only experienced backup, to the Ravens was a mistake.

Another new cornerback? The Vikings can only hope second-year man Ramos McDonald will do as well as free-agent pickup Jimmy Hitchcock did last year. They love McDonald's tools, but he'll need to develop his techniques and confidence in camp.

Where's Jerry Ball? In Cleveland. Ball's replacement, Tony Williams, is highly regarded but untested. Williams and John Randle both go about 6-1 and 280 pounds, giving the Vikings an undersized tackle tandem. Although Williams' athleticism will complement Randle's fierce skills, Ball's size (6-1, 320) and playmaking ability against the run will be missed.

Key competitions

Jets' guards. This is the hottest of training-camp hot spots. Replacing one offensive lineman is tough enough. But the Jets have to replace two from a pool of five players who have no NFL starts among them. The good news is that the Jets had phenomenal success last year with fourth-round find Jason Fabini, who started all 16 games at right tackle. Starting next to nasty veteran Matt O'Dwyer didn't hurt, but O'Dwyer is now with the Bengals. The really good news is the Jets don't have to face Miami's relentless defensive front until December.

Patriots' running back. Robert Edwards' freak injury has Pats fans talkin' Faulk. Edwards' replacement will either be rookie Kevin Faulk or Lamont Warren, Marshall Faulk's backup for five years in Indy. Most likely, it will be a little of both. But if Terry Glenn stays healthy and Tony Simmons has the breakout year many are predicting, the passing game can carry the running game.

Giants' quarterback. Nothing like a good old-fashioned quarterback controversy to stir things up. Kent Graham is the respected veteran, but this pass offense needs a boost, and the Giants didn't give Kerry Collins big money because he looks cute holding a clipboard. Our guess: Collins wins the job in camp and Graham finishes the season.

Packers' defensive backs. Remember that streak the Packers had two years ago where they gave up one TD pass in 30 quarters? Neither do we. That's why Ron Wolf took defensive backs with his first three picks in the draft. But first-rounder Antuan Edwards and second-rounder Fred Vinson both have a history of injuries. They'll have to make an immediate impact, especially since the Packers lost Reggie White's outside pass rush.

Jagadellic, baby

"Remember the Meadowlands!"

That could become the rallying cry for a much-improved Jaguars defense this season. Never was this team's inability to stop the run or rush the passer more apparent than in a 34-24 playoff loss to Parcells' club last year. "We just never stopped the Jets," coach Tom Coughlin says. "And you know, you're never going to beat anybody without stopping them." With that in mind, almost every move the Jaguars made since January was geared toward fixing those problems.

Former Panthers coach Dom Capers, a zoneblitz guru, is their new defensive coordinator. They also signed safety Carnell Lake and defensive tackle Gary Walker. Then they drafted four defensive tackles and three cornerbacks.

But it won't work without a healthy defensive line. Coughlin isn't about to use injuries as an excuse, but it's tough to win a playoff game with three of your top linemen in street clothes. Sure, that can happen once. But two straight seasons?

If they can stay healthy, staying hungry shouldn't be a problem. The loss to the Jets could be a motivational lever for this team, just like a 1996 playoff loss to Coughlin's Jaguars has been motivation for the Broncos the past two years. With a top offense and surprisingly soft schedule, the Jaguars should be playing for the AFC title if the defense makes the leap it should.

Crumbling Cowboys?

As long as Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin are around, you can't ignore the Cowboys. Actually, the Dallas offense should be better than it was in 1998. Assuming Irvin gets over his contract squabbles and Rocket Ismail, Ernie Mills and James McKnight can each make an impact, Chan Gailey finally will have enough. decent receivers to use the four-wide schemes that were such a hit in Pittsburgh. Also, the offensive line should be one of the league's best.

The playoffs are possible, but don't expect a Super Bowl. The Cowboys were 8-0 against the NFL's worst division in '98 but were 2-6 outside the division despite a fourth-place schedule.

The biggest question marks this year come on defense. The Cowboys gave up only 17.2 points per game last season, good for third in the league. But the combination of Deion Sanders' injury and Leon Lett's suspension might be this team's undoing. Sanders will return eventually, and so might Lett, but probably not soon enough. As a division winner, the Cowboys face a tough schedule that includes a stretch of five straight games against 1998 playoff teams. Starting November 8, Dallas faces Randall Cunningham, Brett Favre, Jake Plummer, Dan Marino and Drew Bledsoe in consecutive weeks. It's a stretch that might end the Cowboys' playoff hopes unless a couple of their young defensive linemen can have breakout seasons. A big year from rookie Ebenezer Ekuban would help fans forget this team passed on Vonnie Holliday to take Greg Ellis in last year's draft.

It takes two

When your team spends big money in free agency to bolster its defense--and here I'm speaking to everybody except Bengals fans, who are free to skip this section--it's normal to expect those big-money players to make an immediate impact. But since so many of last year's marquee defensive signees flopped, here's hoping they all just needed a year to get used to new surroundings.

For example, it might be too early to label the Redskins' signing of Dana Stubblefield and trade for Dan Wilkinson bad moves. Stubblefield struggled, then hurt his knee. Wilkinson was a non-factor until December. If that happens again this year, they're busts. But if both excel, we'll just chalk it up to having to adjust to a new system. Here are some other players entering Year 2 with new teams that we'll have our eyes on in camp:

Winfred Tubbs and Gabe Wilkins, 49ers, The Niners' defense went from No. 1 in 1997 to No. 23 last season, and defensive coordinator Jim Mora Jr. knows it won't rebound bound unless Wilkins and Tubbs both have, as he puts it, "superstar seasons." By allowing Tubbs to freelance more this year, Mora hopes he'll play better. Wilkins should improve just because he's healthier.

Sean Gilbert, Panthers. As if adjusting to a new team wasn't enough, Gilbert also had to shake off the rust after sitting out the previous season. He didn't fit well as an end in a 3-4 system last year, so he could benefit from the move to tackle in the 4-3 system favored by George Seifert. Then again, learning another new system could hinder him, as could offseason surgery on his knee and rotator cuff.

Chester McGlockton, Chiefs. The Chiefs also are switching to a 4-3, meaning McGlockton will move to left defensive tackle. The presence of Dan Williams, who sat out last season in a contract dispute, also should help. The question is if McGlockton can stay motivated and disciplined.

Bryce Paup, Jaguars. Like Gilbert, Paup has to learn another defensive system. But he was unhappy with the way he was used last season and should thrive under Capers. He'll line up closer to the line, rushing the passer frequently with fewer coverage responsibilities.

Predictions

* The 49ers' offensive line, held together with more coat hangers and duct tape than a '75 Alfa Romeo last season, will finally fall apart. Longtime assistant Bobb McKittrick, an offensive line alchemist who deserves much of the credit for the Niners' success over the last two decades, has a serious illness. The team also had to dump Kevin Gogan's salary.

* Cardinals defensive coordinator Dave McGinnis will join Capers as the hottest head-coaching prospects for 2000. McGinnis said no to the Bears when management tried to lowball him. Which, as they say in Chicago, makes you a "standup guy."

* How many sacks of coins can one man take in the face? Saints veterans will find out rookie hazing just isn't as fun when you can't spread the wealth. And Ricky Williams will get his revenge when the veterans miss a meeting because it takes three hours to shave his head.

* The Packers fans who turned on Mike Holmgren before the end of last season will be really cheesed when the Seahawks beat the Packers on November 1 at Lambeau. Holmgren gets a couple of breaks in his first season in Seattle, playing all the familiar NFC Central teams this year, save one: the Vikings.

* We ain't Lion: By the end of the season, Detroit's defensive front will be regarded as one of the league's best. Get on the bandwagon now.

* If--and only if--Randall McDaniel plays this season, Jeff George will throw five touchdown passes in a single game and Randy Moss will catch four touchdown passes in a game. It just won't happen in the same game.