Debunking a myth about the Hall - Baseball Hall of Fame - Column

The funny thing about the Hall of Fame is that people think of it as something that it really never was.

If you ask: Which of today's player will someday be in the Hall of Fame? many people might list only Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Wade Boggs and Dave Winfield, maybe. But the first thing to understand is you're not talking about five players. You're talking about at least 25 or 30. A lot of people think of a Hall of Famer in terms of a Mike Schmidt or Johnny Bench - a player who is arguably the best in history at his position.

The truth is, that never was the standard. For example, in 1928, there were 56 men playing who are now in the Hall. Of course, that's an absurdly large number. But don't tell me about it, I didn't elect them. In the 1955 season, there were 31 active players who could become Hall of Famers. From the 1891 season there are 29 players represented in Cooperstown. For 1970, there are 28 and counting.

If you say there shouldn't be that many, what you are saying is that this generation of players should be treated differently from other generation. I'm all for upholding standards, but I don't agree with that.

So when you talk about today's players, it's not necessary to get into a debate about whether Andre Dawson is over the line. Of course he's over the line; he's way over. There are outfielders in the Hall of Fame who couldn't carry Andre's lead doughnut. Dawson, Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn, Paul Molitor, Cal Ripken, Eddie Murray, Jack Morris, Ryne Sandberg - odds are that all of them will be in the Hall sooner or later. If you throw in the four mentioned earlier, that's 12 active players who are pretty much certain to stand someday atop a platform a little north of the Catskills, thanking their teammates and trying desperately to remember the names of their Little League coaches.

That, however, does not exhaust the list; probably another 15 will be there.

The Hall could include a few more players whose careers will attain the needed stature. Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker come to mind, as does Don Mattingly. I'm not saying they will be there, but it's a possibility. They need to keep hitting. Ozzie Smith should go in, although one must never underestimate the ability of writers to forget defense. Lee Smith and Rickey Henderson may eventually accomplish so much that writers will have to forgive them for not being warm and cuddly and elect them anyway.

Most of those other 15, however, will be player who are now on the upswing of their careers, somewhere under 30, and it is difficult to know for sure who they are. Ken Griffey, Frank Thomas, Juan Gonzales, Roberto Alomar - that about does it for the obvious selections. My thoughts on a few of the other candidates:

* Cecil Fielder: Nah. He's just a power hitter. To make the Hall of Fame, he would have to hit 500 homers. He's 30 years old and not even halfway there.

* Will Clark: The season he is having makes him a viable candidate, particularly if he is able to carry the Rangers into the postseason.

* John Olerud: I doubt it. I'd compare him to Rusty Staub or Al Oliver of the last generation - outstanding pure hitters, but not blessed with great speed or tremendous power. He won't go to Cooperstown unless he can reach 3,000 hits or win several batting titles, and those are tough goals.

* Jeff Bagwell: Comparable to Olerud. He has a chance, but he'll have to get even better than he is now.

* Joe Carter: He'll probably make it. I always respect a player who can drive in 100 runs in his sleep.

* Jose Canseco: Doubt it. I don't expect him to have a long career.

* Bret Saberhagen: Nope. He's amazing when he's healthy, but he needs 100 more victories, and he doesn't have that many pitches left.

* Kenny Lofton: It's too early, but I like his chances. A devastating player, and speed players usually age well.

* Brett Butler: It wouldn't be a shock. He's already past 2,000 hits and having possibly his best season.

* Albert Belle: I don't imagine he'll last long enough, but the man can definitely hit.

* Carlos Baerga: The best player nobody notices. Long odds, but he has a chance.

* Gregg Jefferies: Probably not. He'll need a lot of seasons like 1993 to make people forget New York.

* Jimmy Key: He needs a couple of 20-victory seasons to be taken seriously.

* Orel Hershiser: No way.

* Dave Stewart: He;s pushing 40 and doesn't have the numbers, but you never want to count him out.

* Jim Abbott: He'll catch a break if he's close, but there's nothing that indicates he's going to be close.

* Greg Maddux: You mean he's not already in?

* David Cone: Among the pitchers of his generation, he embodies the things you look for in a Hall of Famer better than anyone except Clemens and possibly Maddux: He has always been healthy, he throws hard and he wins more than he loses.

* Dennis Eckersley: What are the standards for a 12-year starter who converts to the bullpen? I don't know, but I'd vote for him.

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