odds on

Like a tramp looking for old cigarette butts I confess to a habit of picking up and having a peek at others' discarded football coupons. What I invariably find is that the tattered form has been peppered with huge lines of accumulators, with around #3 staked on each.

It is no wonder that bookmakers maintain a profit of 40% on football betting, even though their margin on each game is only 11%. Even this hides the real truth.

On many weeks the bookies' settlers will not find a single winning coupon in the entries. There is an unhealthy obsession of football punters to back lines of home teams at the shortest odds they can find. Manchester United and Rangers at home at around 4/11 always seem to appeal.

The big firms are faced with only occasional losing weeks when the top 10 or so 'bankers' oblige.

There has been some relaxation in the bookmakers' rules; generally trebles are now accepted on English and Scottish Premier League games, even if a home team is selected. Otherwise it's fivefolds only for home wins.

I fancy that even if singles were permitted on every game the majority of backers would still line up their vast accumulators. However, Draconian rules on the minimum number of selections allowed are not the prime reason why football coupons are generally treated like lottery entries.

A single bet is unappealing to those of modest financial means. The average coupon stake is a lot less than #20. These staking levels don't promise rewards to get exited about when the choice of odds on a game is 10/11 a home win, 12/5 a draw and 5/2 away.

In order to maintain an interest in more than one game, and to have a hope of a win that feels worthwhile, the football backer is forced into the realm of multiple bets.

Many will justifiably argue that multiple bets are a mug's playground. They simply make you lose quicker as the margin in the bookmaker's favour multiplies through each additional selection. This, of course, is absolutely true. However, multiple bets enable anyone who consistently wins using singles to win more.

It is a frustrating circular argument. However, I believe there are a number of regular punters whose forecasting skills are such that a tweaking of their multiples would result in a better overall performance.

My favoured bet is to back seven aways with 35 trebles. Assuming the average away win is priced at 3-1 there is a return of 64 units (a profit of 82%) when three selections are correct. Of course, there is no return if only one or two selections are right.

There are possibly a lot of backers who would maintain a profit if they bet singles, but are so over-optimistic with their multiple bets they never reap the pay-outs they deserve. If someone is backing in fivefolds from seven selections they may well be achieving an excellent performance by regularly finding three or four winners, but never actually win a penny.

The "minimum fivefolds" rule if a home is included is, in my opinion, almost in-surmountable. Though trebles are permitted on midweek games, this leaves Saturday home wins as a "no go" area.

For average stakes the "3 from 7 aways" allows the chance to make a small profit on frequent occasions and the possibility of a substantial pay-out every once in a while.

Returns on 'Trebles from seven selections' to a #1 unit stake, assuming odds of 3-1.

1 correct NIL 2 correct NIL 3 correct #64 - correct #256 5 correct #640 6 correct #1280 7 correct #2240 Total pay out #16,384 Any 3 from 7 = 35 Trebles at #1 each + #1 Accumulator = #36 staked.

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