Defining the hot issues for 2000: Democratic perspective

Candidates from both parties for local, state and national offices are busy determining their issue agenda for 2000. Here's a little advice from two pollsters.

In the hit movie "Groundhog Day," the protagonist (played by Bill Murray) is forced to repeat the same day - Groundhog Day - over and over and over, until he gets it right. For Democrats, November 2000 could turn out to be a "Groundhog Day" election, in which the major issues of 1998 - education and Social Security - will once again be at the forefront. But this time, there is more opportunity for Democrats to get the issues right and achieve their own version of a happy Hollywood ending: keeping the White House, taking the U.S. House back and winning crucial state legislative contests.

The big difference in 2000 will be that while Democrats have been busy shoring up their credentials on education and Social Security, the Republicans have been mired in impeachment politics. Indeed, the GOP's seeming neglect of issues that actually touch people's daily lives and their preoccupation with impeaching a popular President, is making the party seem increasingly out-of-touch and irrelevant. In fact, a February 1999 CBS/New York Times survey showed that the Democratic Party has a healthy 50 percent to 33 percent lead on which party has better ideas for solving the nation's problems.

It is hard to downplay the political damage the Republican Party has sustained as a result of its trying to get President Clinton.

First, the GOP is approaching its lowest standing with the American public since the early 1990s, due in large measure to its handling of the impeachment trial. For example, a mid-January 1999 NBC/Wall Street Journal survey showed that 39 percent of Americans had become less favorable toward the GOP over the past year (compared to 17 percent who had become more favorable), with Republican handling of the Clinton investigation and impeachment process were cited as the main reason for respondents' increase in negative attitudes.

Volunteered Most Important Issue Facing the Nation

Education, schools                             23%
Social Security, senior citizens               18%
Health care issues                             17%
Taxes/spending issues                          16%
Crime/drug issues                              14%
Jobs, unemployment                             11%

Source: January 1999 NBC/WS/National Survey

Second, and perhaps most troubling for the Republican Party's long-term electoral prospects, is that the public's attention is simply not focused on Clinton's personal life, nor does it think the issue is particularly important to the nation.

On the other hand, just 6 percent of Americans volunteer a concern related to the scandals. Republicans are burdened with a potent double-whammy: first of all, they are most identified with an unpopular issue (impeaching Bill Clinton); second, the most important issues for the public are those on which Democrats typically have the most credibility.

In the February 1999 CBS/New York Times survey, the Democrats had big advantages on the issues that topped the public's agenda, such as beating the Republicans by 23 points on education and 19 points on Social Security. Incredibly, the Democrats even hold a 42 percent to 40 percent advantage over the Republicans on reducing taxes.

And when the Republicans try to take the offensive on a non-impeachment issue, they seem to have misfired. Congressional Republicans have offered a tax cut proposal that uses up much of the projected federal budget surplus, despite polling that shows voters are far more interested in using the surplus to save Social Security. According to the January 1999 NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, even Republicans have a preference for using the surplus to guarantee the financial stability of Social Security (40 percent) as opposed to giving the money back to taxpayers in the form of tax cuts (34 percent).

A cardinal rule of politics is that when your opponent is busy making a mistake, don't get in the way. The GOP's intent on removing Bill Clinton from office gives Democrats the opportunity to strengthen their claim on issues that the American public finds most relevant. By keeping the focus on education and Social Security, Democrats will be well-positioned for 2000.

Fred Yang is a Democratic pollster with the firm, Garin-Hart-Yang.

COPYRIGHT 1999 Campaigns & Elections, Inc.
COPYRIGHT 2000 Gale Group