The close: effective issues and smart messages for the final days of campaign '98 - Democratic and Republican perspectives

Pollsters from both parties advise their candidates on how to handle the hot issues in this election's home stretch.

DEMOCRATIC PERSPECTIVE

BY FREDERICK S. YANG

The end-game strategy of the closing weeks obviously depends a lot on how effective individual campaigns have been in the previous months and weeks. Hopefully, by then, Democratic candidates will have accomplished the following objectives to best position themselves for the stretch run: (a) laid down a solid foundation on personal qualities, (b) staked out aggressive positions on the key issues of this election - education, HMO reform and Social Security and (c) mobilized their campaign organization to turnout the Democratic vote.

Objective #1 - What Makes You Tick? Even before the mid-summer furor over the Clinton-Lewinsky situation made it almost mandatory, candidates - even the best-known - were well-advised to provide some insights into their values. Too many times, candidates only complete half the sale - telling voters what issues they care about, not why. Issues are excellent vehicles to communicate a candidate's beliefs, such as caring about the future and understanding the value of keeping a promise. And by establishing themselves on the personal level early on, candidates have a better chance of withstanding the inevitable negative attacks that are likely to come in the closing weeks.

Objective #2 - What Are You Fighting For? The polling data indicates that the Democratic agenda on critical issues of public education, HMO reform and Social Security resonate strongly with the electorate. Equally as important, these issues provide the opportunity for Democrats to readily draw clear and powerful distinctions with Republicans, which is an important advantage given the clutter of political communications in the closing weeks. Consider this polling information:

* Social Security: Few Americans support Speaker Gingrich's risky plan to use the budget surplus to fund major tax cuts (24 percent) versus the Democratic plan to use the entire surplus to make Social Security more financially secure (69 percent). Indeed, fully 63 percent of Americans - including two-thirds of independents - believe the budget surplus will not be large enough to fund tax cuts and Social Security. (July 1998 NBC/WSJ poll). Needless to say, given that seniors comprise a disproportionate share of mid-term turnout, Democrats should make Social Security a prominent issue at the close of the campaign.

* HMO Reform: Democrats are on very strong ground castigating the Republicans for gutting the bipartisan Dingell-Ganske patients' bill of rights legislation. Simply put, Americans do not trust the insurance industry to reform HMOs. They look favorably on new, common-sense government regulations. On the main point of contention between Democrats and Republicans, the American public says by an overwhelming 69 percent to 18 percent margin that patients should have the right to sue their HMOs for improper care, rejecting the GOP argument that such a provision will raise the cost of health insurance. (July 1998 NBC/WSJ Poll)

* Education: In the mid-June NBC/WSJ national survey, improving public education ranked just behind Social Security as a voting issue for this November's congressional elections. And in the same survey, a majority of Americans opposed a proposal to provide taxpayer-funded vouchers for private school tuition, which suggests that Democrats' rock-solid support for public schools (versus the GOP proposals to jeopardize public education) is another winning issue.

Objective #3 - Who Votes? Obviously, Objectives #1 and #2 relate directly to turning out voters, which is in some ways perhaps the most important objective for Democrats in 1998. Democratic turnout tends to lag be behind Republicans in mid-term elections. An effective program focused on identifying actual Democratic voters and getting them to the polls can make the difference.

The good news for Democrats is that the key issues of education, Social Security and HMO reform resonate extremely well with the "base" vote and the all-important swing vote. In other words, there is little need for the Democratic message to be substantially different when it comes to the sometimes contradictory strategic tasks of motivation (Democratic voters) and persuasion (swing voters).

But the ultimate success or failure of Democrats in 1998 will rely equally, if not more, on winning the "ground" game versus winning the "air" game, which means the main task of campaigns at all levels is putting a premium on election day turnout.

So while the pundits focus on the television ads and the campaign back-and-forth, the real action that will likely determine control of Congress and of numerous state houses will be occurring under the radar.

REPUBLICAN PERSPECTIVE

BY GLEN BOLGER

For federal candidates, the 1998 elections are about six broad message areas: Social Security, taxes, education, the balanced budget, health care and Bill Clinton. While it's possible that something may occur between the time this article is written and the moment this publication hits your mailbox, this is the general direction we're headed.

Taking a purely election-oriented perspective on each of those six issues, here are key points on each:

Social Security: First and foremost, it's important for Republicans to remember that Democrats demagogue this issue. They will do and say anything to scare senior citizens. Democrats like to use phones to deliver a late "hit" message to senior citizens. To counteract the demagoguery, Republican campaigns must have a part of their campaign plan dedicated to senior citizens. That page in the plan should include both tactics (mailings, phones, television) as well as messages. Tactically, mail is an excellent way to reach senior citizens - they read voter mail at a higher level than any other age group. The strongest message you can use is that you want to take Social Security off-budget so that Congress can no longer raid the Trust Fund for programs like foreign aid and welfare. It is also important to stress that the surplus should be used to protect Social Security.

Taxes: This issue is pretty simple - Republicans are for cutting taxes, Democrats aren't. The tax issue unites base Republicans and soft Republicans. Issues like ending the marriage penalty tax, reforming the IRS and making the tax code fairer, flatter and simpler all resonate strongly. Republican candidates should have a tax component in their paid media message.

Education: What a difference a coherent message makes! Two years ago, Democrats controlled the education issue. Now, voters generally perceive no difference between the two parties on the issue. Heather Wilson's control of the education issue in the New Mexico CD-1 special election kept Phil Maloof from uniting his soft Democratic vote and helped cost him the election. As I've been saying for two years, it is important that Republicans not beat up on teachers. Instead, we've got to align with kids, parents and teachers against bureaucrats who are wasting money. Messages like discipline, basics, money in classrooms, competency testing and other reforms resonate. Doing well on education can help a Republican cut down the gender gap among younger women.

Balanced budget: It is important to drive home the message that we need a Republican Congress to keep a check on the president and Democrats in Congress to make sure they don't increase spending, ending the balanced budget. Voters aren't convinced that the budget is balanced - and they sure don't trust the Democrats to do it. GOP incumbents should take credit for the balanced budget, while open seat candidates want voters to choose which candidate will do a better job on the balanced budget.

Health care: This issue has lost some of its zip for the Democrats. This isn't to say that voters aren't concerned about managed care. However, when the only substantive difference between the Republican plan and the Democratic plan is an independent review versus the right to sue, the lines are blurred for voters. Republicans backed HMO reforms to cover patients for reasonable emergency room visits and to allow patients to pay slightly more to go outside the HMO network to see the doctor of their choice. This makes sure HMOs do not restrict what doctors tell patients about treatment options.

It's also important to remind voters that Republicans fought for - and passed - health care portability.

Bill Clinton: Despite his good job approval ratings, President Clinton's personal numbers are extraordinarily weak. Our polling also shows that Republicans can't wait to get to the voting booth to send a message to Clinton. Direct mail fundraising that capitalizes on Clinton's hypocrisy is bringing in significant returns.

At the same time Republican candidates are benefitting from Clinton's woes, they should be careful not to appear "holier than thou" - or be a "johnny one-note" solely on this issue.

Elections are about contrasts between individuals. Those contrasts can be issue-oriented, ideological-oriented, character-oriented or experience-oriented.

It is still incumbent on each campaign to determine the best contrasts to make and focus its "home stretch" message based on those differences.

Fred Yang is a Democratic pollster with the firm, Garin-Hart-Yang.

Glen Bolger is a Republican pollster with the firm, Public Opinion Strategies.

COPYRIGHT 1998 Campaigns & Elections, Inc.
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