Winning gambling ballot issues - Analysis

Since New Jersey authorized casinos in Atlantic City in the '70s, casino operators and state and local politicians have salivated over the potential profits and tax revenues gambling would bring. While little movement on expansion occurred in the '80s, it took the budget pinch of this decade to finally prod states to pass gaming legislation. As the '90s began, there was a flood (no pun intended) of elections along America's coasts, lakes, and rivers concerning water-based casinos -- riverboats, schooners, and barges -- allowing vessels to ply the surrounding waters where millions would gamble, and then return to shore with empty pockets while state, city, and county coffers fill up.

But the public has not yet wholeheartedly endorsed this new method of gaming, recreation, and revenue production. Some of the electorate's attitudes have remained static over the last 15-20 years; other opinions have changed. While the new efforts to initiate riverboat and dockside gambling have been successful (some places in Mississippi, Indiana, and Illinois), others have failed in their attempts (Ouachita Parish, Louisiana; Cape Girardeau, Missouri; and the Biloxi area of Mississippi requiring two elections for success).

As was the case in the late '70s, morality continues to play a major role in public opinion, with close to one-third of almost any electorate holding the opinion that gambling is immoral. The vast majority (80-85 percent) of these voters are adamantly opposed to casino gambling whether on land or water.

These attitudes give gambling opponents a beginning core vote of about 25 percent (33 percent immoral x 85 percent against gambling on that basis) leaving about 75 percent of any given electorate available to proponents. To win these elections, the pro-side must capture two-thirds or more of the available electorate.

Ten to fifteen years ago, however, opposition to gaming started with a bigger lead than it does today. The few early attempts to institute gambling outside of New Jersey found voters 2-to-1 opposed. Recently, opinions have become less lopsided. As Table 1 shows, in five areas, public opinion is more amenable to gambling. Nationally, casino gambling adherents now run 10 points better than they did in Florida and DC 10 years ago.

The slight improvement in the general climate toward gambling is not due to a significant change in attitudes toward morality, but more to an increasing demand for tax revenues, a generally positive experience with state lotteries, and a decline in support for the intellectual argument that "fees from vices shouldn't pay for government; voters taxes should."

Another look at Tables 1 and 2, however, demonstrates that the proponents of off- shore riverboat gambling usually face an uphill battle.

* The anti-side begins with a base vote of 25-30 percent which is easily located and can be motivated with emotional messages, and...

* Most people have a strong opinion on casino gambling with 10 percent or less being undecided. Leaving a very narrow range of persuadable voters.

Voter Profiles

Who are these people on each side of the issue? The demographic and political profiles, gleaned from six local surveys plus the Hams national survey, are shown in Table 2.

Table 2 shows the anti-gambling side looks like middle America -- mature, likely to be retired, middle-income, and largely Protestant. This is similar to the national profile of Republican voters. This GOP tinge to the anti-side appears to be more striking in those areas where there is a tradition of party competitiveness -- say Indiana rather than Mississippi.

The pro-side looks like traditional Democratic voters -- without the seniors. Groups which start out strongly pro-casino gambling are Catholics, blacks, and union members. They are younger, especially under 30 years of age, and lower income (with some support among the highest income level).

While gambling may look like a partisan issue, it is not, though the demographic components are similar, but the major factor which drives the gambling issue is religious preference and religiosity. TABULAR DATA OMITTED TABULAR DATA OMITTED While Catholics usually favor gambling issues by 2 or 3-to-1, Protestants are against by at least 10 points, with members of fundamentalist sects even more negative. Church attendance is an even stronger predictor -- those who regularly attend any religious services once a week or more are 4 or 5-to-1 against casino gambling. This relationship to religion is why the elderly do not side with their fellow Democrats, and why many men and women find themselves flip-flopped from their normal partisan grouping.

The small persuadable group on this issue is usually small and leans demographically toward the proponents.

The Messages

The pro-side must gain control of the agenda of the campaign if they are to have a chance at victory. Those in opposition begin with a large base vote and emotion on their side -- fear of organized crime and increased criminal activity such as prostitution, loan sharking, pan handling, etc.

Economic messages are critical for the pro-side -- and obviously work best where economic dislocation has already occurred, like in Alton, Illinois, or Harrison (Biloxi) and Tunica Counties, Mississippi. Creating new jobs is appealing to all segments of voters -- especially voters on the middle and lower end of the employment ladder. New tax revenues paid for largely by outsiders are also appealing, especially when earmarked for: law enforcement, improvement of education, and building sewers, bridges, and roads.

It has been found that the small persuadable bloc (undecided and soft voters) usually agree that one or more of these messages could get them to vote "Yes." Driving the economic message home is critical.

Broader Themes

In addition to the economic, crime, and moral issues, there are a number of broader, umbrella themes which affect campaign communications from both sides:

* The inevitability of an economically competitive, neighboring area obtaining casino gambling usually works in favor of the positive side. The guaranteed proximity of a gaming enterprise can sometimes switch enough votes based on the loss of revenue and control to put the pro-side over the top.

* Public confidence in the system and agency that will regulate casinos can increase (or decrease) voter "comfort-level." This affects perceptions of both the crime and revenue issues.

* Selling gambling as part of a larger entertainment facility, theme park, or retail development may make it more acceptable. In areas where this development would be a logical expansion of tourism or would be located in a depressed area where there are few recreational activities, this message is strongest.

* The image of the players involved in gambling issues sets the atmosphere and impacts which advocacy messages are believed. It is important that local leaders and politicians present a united front especially regarding bow new revenues will be spent. Additionally, the popularity of civic organizations, casino operators, and local financial "partners" is critical to acceptance of campaign messages.

Bottomline

Opinion surveys show that the anti-side wins unless the pro-side can build the correct dynamic in campaign communications or can alter voter turnout on election day.

When the pro-gambling side was not organized or focused (like the recent vote in Ouachita Parish, Louisiana or the first |1990~ Biloxi vote or Cape Girardeau, Missouri), the combination of morality and fear of crime carry the day in terms of both persuadability and who turns out. When the pro-side runs professional political campaigns, they are more likely to win -- which has been the history of the successes from Davenport, Iowa to the Illinois communities and from Biloxi, Mississippi (the second time) to Vanderburgh County, Indiana.

In some races, the basic constituency and environment is wrong, either because the economic mood is off, or religious composition doesn't favor your side, or because popular players oppose you. This "wrong environment" more often works against the pro-side. And in these cases, it takes a high-budget voter I.D. phone and mail campaign to keep the race low-key and to turn out targeted supporters.

Gaming, especially on the water, will remain a hot political issue for the next few years; state and local governments need the revenue. One insider predicts up to 500 local elections in the next five years. Early odds suggest that professionally run campaigns will produce more wins for the pro-side than not.

William R. Hamilton is the president of Hamilton & Associates, a Washington, DC, polling firm.

COPYRIGHT 1993 Campaigns & Elections, Inc.
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group