Job rating for Bush jumps after Iraqi vote

WASHINGTON -- Americans give President Bush his highest job approval rating in more than a year and show cautious optimism about Iraq in a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken shortly after historic Iraqi elections.

In reversals from a month ago, majorities now say that going to war in Iraq was not a mistake, that things are going well there and that it's likely democracy will be established in Iraq.

Bush's approval rating of 57 percent is his highest since he reached 59 percent in January 2004, shortly after U.S. troops captured Saddam Hussein.

The public remains skeptical about Bush's plans to alter Social Security, however. Only 44 percent say they approve of his approach, compared with 50 percent who say they disapprove.

And Bush's domestic agenda continues to diverge from the priorities cited in the poll. Respondents consider health care costs, education and the economy higher priorities for Bush and Congress than the issues on Bush's front burner: Social Security, taxes, same- sex marriage and limits on lawsuits.

The poll of 1,010 adults was conducted Friday through Sunday -- after the Jan. 30 elections in Iraq and Bush's State of the Union address Wednesday that highlighted the vote. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

"Nothing breeds success like success," says Matthew Dowd, a Bush strategist. People now feel the decisions Bush made "were the right ones," he says, and that translates into more trust in his leadership.

Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster and strategist, says Bush's high numbers are a temporary function of "a positive news event" (the Iraqi elections) and a well-received State of the Union address. He predicts they will be superseded by "Social Security privatization and a budget proposal that is deficit-laden, even with huge cuts in domestic programs."

The Iraq numbers are striking in their consistency. Six in 10 people say the elections there went better than they expected.

Other findings:

-- 55 percent say the United States did not make a mistake sending troops to Iraq, up from 47 percent last month.

-- 53 percent say things are going very or moderately well in Iraq, compared with 40 percent last month.

-- 64 percent say it is very or somewhat likely a democratic form of government will be established in Iraq, up from 47 percent last month.

-- 10 percent say more U.S. troops are needed in Iraq, down from 24 percent who felt that way before the elections.

-- 50 percent say they approve of how Bush is handling Iraq, up from 42 percent last month; 48 percent say they disapprove, down from 56 percent last month.

The poll suggests a broadly positive environment for Bush's party. Republicans receive a 56 percent favorable rating, compared with 46 percent for Democrats -- a 10-point advantage, up from 6 points in September. And 55 percent say Bush's policies will move the country in the right direction -- up from 51 percent last month.

Dowd says Bush is at the high end of his approval range, given "how polarized the country is." But he says the elevation should last longer than the usual blip, because "people see President Bush's presidency as so linked to Iraq."

Garin calls it "a difficult time for Democrats to get their message across." He says the balance between parties should become more even as the debate turns to Social Security and the budget.

Copyright C 2005 Deseret News Publishing Co.
Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved.