Let's Postpone the Millennium

Seth M. Siegel is co-chairman of the Beanstalk Group, New York, a worldwide licensing agency whose clients include Harley-Davidson, Coca-Cola, Seventeen magazine and Hummer.

Millennium countdowns and saturation media coverage notwithstanding, Dec 31, 1999, is already a markdown item.

I admit to never quite getting the fascination with this mere date, other than for the bragging rights of being able to say that you were alive at the time of this (artificial) milestone event. Clearly, lots of folks in the marketing and licensing communities are determined to prove me wrong.

The word "millennium" and the number "2000" have been and will be affixed to so many corporate logos, charitable and government initiatives, seminars, symposia and sporting events that those without the graphic overlay will look like they are missing part of their name. (Dispensations and waivers will be granted to those opting for the shorter-horizon prefix or suffix "21st Century").

But, I predict, the entity which will make the most money from Millennium Fever will be the U.S. Trademark Office, which has already received more than 4,000 separate trademark applications (and filing fees) for variations on the word "millennium." (There will also be money to be made in friendly wagers in bars and at office water coolers as to whether 2000 will be a leap year. It won't be Remarkably, it is the first four-year cycle in 400 years to skip a Feb. 29).

Even those retailers dabbling with Year 2000 merchandise will be keeping assortments limited and inventory tight. They know there won't be much of a market for these products after the clock strikes "12" on New Year's Eve, and not too much of a market for these souvenirs too far in advance either. The selling window is a short one that can better be filled with less risky SKUs.

Adding to Millennium Fever's woes is the much-reported-on, but still unfelt, Y2K problem Virtually all computer software designed and sold over the past generation has been able to record and recognize only two digits for the year part of the date. While we moderns think of 01/01/00 as Jan 1, 2000, all of these ancient, dumb machines will assume Jan 1, 1900 is the date in mind Come Jan 1, 2000, many computers around the world will freeze And, with life today utterly dependent on well-functioning computers, there are likely to be many disruptions and inconveniences, if not the chaos, hoarding, rioting and stock market crashes which some survivalists have predicted.

The dampening effect on millennium euphoria is clear With the Titanic possibly about to hit an iceberg, many would-be celebrants will cautiously, if not somberly, be looking for life jackets and rowboats instead of for party hats and millennium merchandise.

At the last millennium, the printing press didn't exist (Gutenberg didn't invent it until 1455) and, of course, there was not much in the way of media beyond scrolls and travelers' accounts. The headline news was of Leif Eriksson and his Vikings' voyage to North America But, even so, there was a religiously inspired millennium craze throughout Europe which predicted Jesus' return Whole communities prepared for His arrival and for the Kingdom of Heaven such a return would foretell. Unfortunately, there is no reliable record as to whether there were significant sales of Year 1000 products In our more secular, global and polyglot world, messianism has been replaced by consumerism and, not including Heaven's Gate-type cults, Year 2000 is likely to be remembered more for its commercial impact than for its religious one.

The one shaper of popular culture which has been noticeably absent from millennium exploitation has been Hollywood With near-l00% awareness of the coming of 2000 and widespread concern about Y2K, an exploitative summer disaster film cross-cutting a smiling, not-a-care-in-the-world, getting-ready-for-the-millennium Brad Pitt with a sweating, cursing, computer-genius-who-saves-the-world Bruce Willis is a film that could be written in one draft. That Hollywood is avoiding the millennium as a story should tell those who want to turn it into a business to be careful.

Maybe we can have a big party on Dec 31, 2000 (the real starting date of the new millennium), when we know that civil society will not freeze along with our computers Happy New Year!

COPYRIGHT 1999 BPI Communications, Inc.
COPYRIGHT 2000 Gale Group