Many roadblocks to Mideast peace

The Middle East road map to peace may already be unraveling. A Palestinian state by 2005, which is the major goal of the road map, is very unlikely.

That's the assessment of Ibrahim Karawan, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah.

During a phone conversation Monday, Karawan's analytical forecast provided much more pessimism than optimism regarding Israel and the Palestinians.

The events of the past week are a classic case of what's happened time and time again in the Middle East, he said -- hopes being raised only to see them shattered.

"It is relatively easier to torpedo a breakthrough than to make one. Making one requires a lot on both sides. Torpedoing one only requires one, two or three individuals," Karawan said.

And that's what happened Sunday. After conciliatory statements by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas to President Bush last week at a meeting in Jordan, militants representing Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade staged a joint attack on an Israeli army outpost, killing four Israeli soldiers. Later in the day, another Israeli soldier was killed in an attack in the West Bank city of Hebron.

Another similar attack will likely lead to a counterattack by the Israelis, which could lead to another vicious cycle of violence, Karawan believes. No Israeli prime minister will be able to say "let's get out of the West Bank" if there are more attacks. "He will get cut to pieces politically," Karawan said.

The prospects that the recent attacks are just a short-term sidetrack to eventual peace between Israel and the Palestinians are not good, Karawan added.

Abbas is well-intentioned but is basically handcuffed in trying to meet the goals of the U.S. road map to peace on the Palestinian side. That's because:

He doesn't control the Palestinian streets.

Militant groups such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Palestinian Front for the Liberation of Palestine are not going to give up their power.

He doesn't have the support of Yasser Arafat.

For years the Israelis have targeted the security agencies of the Palestinians, weakening Abbas' capability of handling disputes.

The road to peace is going to be a long one, Karawan believes. Each attack and counterattack creates mutual bitterness that requires a long time for healing.

"These (Israeli, Palestinian) parties cannot embrace one another overnight." The idea that a solution can be reached by putting opposing leaders in a room and showing them pictures of their grandchildren is delusional, Karawan said. When a solution is found, it will come about in increments, Karawan said.

Karawan is convinced there is no military solution to the Arab- Israeli conflict. Eventually, the parties "will destroy each other, exhaust each other or find mutual accommodation," he said.

Extreme fatigue, the absence of other alternatives and "another generation that can learn both the utility of power and the limits of power" may be the best hope for lasting peace in the Middle East, Karawan said.

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