A playoff pox/ Like the plague, Broncos are to be avoided

ENGLEWOOD - From New York to Miami, Baltimore to Oakland - especially Oakland - there is one common, yet unspoken, holiday wish.

Please don't let the Denver Broncos into the AFC playoffs.

There's always one team nobody wants to face, one team the others hope to slip past thanks to the luck of the bracket rather than face- to-face confrontation. This year, Denver is that team. The Broncos have a weird mix of tangible and intangible qualities that could make them postseason poison for teams bent on making a Super Bowl run.

Here's why:

The rush defense

Denver coach Mike Shanahan said a few weeks ago that teams expecting a real shot at winning the Super Bowl need to be in the top 10 against the run.

Denver is No. 8, allowing an average of 97 yards per game. Most importantly, the Broncos have proved that the 407 yards they gave up against Cincinnati was an aberration. Only one other team has managed to break the 100-yard barrier against the Broncos.

Take away Cincinnati and Denver's other 11 opponents have averaged 68 yards per game. That would be the second-best average in the league. Outside of Corey Dillon's record-setting 278 yards, no opposing back has had more than 86 yards against Denver.

Denver's weakness is pass defense. But unless the opponent is St. Louis or Indianapolis - one is in the other conference, the other will probably miss the playoffs - the greatest weakness might not be exposed.

The offense

Several teams in the AFC playoff picture have plodding offenses. Baltimore, Buffalo, Miami and Tennessee are all in the back half of the NFL in scoring.

Not Denver, second in the league in scoring and total yards, the only AFC team in the top 10 in every major statistical category. The Broncos, even with a backup quarterback and a third-string running back, have firepower. For a little perspective, the Broncos have gained 500 or more yards in three games this season. St. Louis didn't do it at all last year, yet won the Super Bowl.

Let history be a guide. The Broncos have averaged 29 points in eight playoff games under Shanahan, with an average of 178 yards rushing. Terrell Davis has gained more than 100 yards in the past seven. Defense may win championships, but the Broncos have done just fine with offense, too.

This year's Broncos are on pace to score as many points as Denver's 1998 Super Bowl champions. And this year's team is averaging 426 yards per game - 45 more than the 1998 record-setting team and an average just 7 yards shy of the all-time pace, set by Miami in 1984.

Rise to the competition

The Broncos play every team tough. Despite losing 14 games over the past two seasons, the past 12 losses have been by 10 points or fewer. The Broncos tend to find themselves in tight ballgames and have shown, of late, a propensity to win them.

Playing on the road doesn't seem to be a big issue, either. Against teams with winning records this year, Denver is 3-1. Two of the victories, against Oakland and against the New York Jets, came on the road. The only loss came at St. Louis in the season opener, a game Denver led with 3 minutes remaining.

History

Think Shanahan has a hex on the Raiders? He's just as tough on playoff foes. Shanahan has a 7-1 record in the playoffs, the best winning percentage of any coach in the league, and is riding a seven- game winning streak.

Denver is only 22 months removed from its last Super Bowl win. The Broncos still have 28 players who were part of the Denver's back- to-back championships.

Of the other five teams in control of their playoff destinies - Raiders, Dolphins, Titans, Jets and Ravens - only Tennessee has played in the Super Bowl over the past 16 years.

Intangibles

The Broncos control their playoff hopes. If they don't make it, it will be because they lost a key game or two down the stretch. If the current standings hold - and they won't - Denver would play at Baltimore in a wild-card game.

Should Denver win, and depending on the result of the other game, the Broncos could head to Oakland for a divisional playoff game. Or the two rivals could meet in the AFC Championship Game. No team wants to see Denver cough up a playoff spot more than Oakland. The Broncos, of course, would love to see the Raiders, the best team in the conference, and would like their chances against just about any of the AFC teams.

The Broncos have just one wish: Please, please, keep the Bengals out of the playoffs.

- John Branch may be reached at [email protected]

Edited by Ray Evans. Headline by Larry McFarland

If the playoffs started today

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

Division winners

Oakland (10-2), Miami (9-3), Tennessee (9-3)

Wild-card qualifiers

Baltimore (9-4), Denver (8-4), N.Y. Jets (8-4)

Wild-card playoffs (Dec. 30 and 31)

Denver at Baltimore

N.Y. Jets at Tennessee

Byes

Oakland, Miami

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

Division winners

Minnesota (10-2), Philadelphia (9-4), New Orleans (8-4)

Wild-card qualifiers

Detroit (8-4), St. Louis (8-4), N.Y. Giants (8-4)

Wild-card playoffs (Dec. 30 and 31)

St. Louis at Detroit

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans

Byes

Minnesota, Philadelphia

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