The Quiet Man Is Taking Nobody In; Iain Macwhirter Reckons that Iain

Do not underestimate the power of the PlayStation. I don't know if whoever penned the key line from Iain Duncan Smith's conference speech (some say it was him) ever watches television, but I couldn't help being reminded of the advert for the eponymous games console. It's the kind of gothic irony that goes with the computer games industry. Unfortunately there wasn't a trace of irony when the Tory leader warned us not to underestimate the power of the quiet man.

I'm sorry to be unkind, but it was a quite ludicrous speech, full of George Bush-style inanities, delivered with a leaden, humourless pomposity that was not only alien to the man (IDS is a rather likeable, down-to-earth guy in a Scots Guards kind of way) but alien to British politics. The Daily Telegraph columnist Alan Cochrane said he sounded like a Dalek. It's hard to disagree. William Hague was Churchill by comparison.

In the immediate aftermath of the speech - after the obligatory standing ovation - there was an embarrassed silence from media commentators, such as the BBC's Andrew Marr. Pundits were clearly astonished at the sheer weirdness of the performance, but didn't feel that it was quite fair play to draw attention to it. But the long, slow pauses between each IDS platitude were cringeworthy to sit through. I get the same feeling when watching David Brent on TV. The Office is so good it hurts. Duncan Smith was so bad it hurt.

The Conservatives are in the rather peculiar situation now of having a Scottish leader, David McLetchie, who is in many respects better than the UK one. McLetchie would no more have delivered a speech like that than he would have delivered a speech on the merits of gay marriage. I suppose that makes him a member of the nasty tendency. But at least he sounds authoritative and has a sharp wit which he has used to great effect in the Scottish parliament. McLetchie has resisted being voice-coached and brain-washed by PR types. Rightly. Scotland would not warm to the IDS effect.

They might be well advised to keep Duncan Smith on the other side of the Border during the Scottish parliamentary election campaign next May. Trouble is, the Scottish Tories' performance could decide the fate of the UK leader. If the Conservatives do badly in Scotland, Wales and the councils, IDS may not be given a chance to improve his conference speaking.

On the question of nice and nasty parties, there has been much speculation about where the Scottish Tories lie on the great Conservative divide. The Ayr MSP Phil Gallie has, surely, to be a founder member of the nasties, having supported capital punishment and been a fervent supporter of Section 28. Mary Scanlon, however, the Tory health spokesperson, spoke movingly on Holyrood Live last week of her own experiences in the party as a lone parent. She says she fought for years against "snobbery and prejudice" in the Scottish Conservatives. It made her miserable to hear people like the former Social Security minister Peter Lilley demonising single parents. She now feels vindicated and believes the Scottish Tories have indeed changed.

I have my doubts. Remember what happened to the former Tory chairman Michael Hirst on the eve of the 1997 general election, after he admitted to a gay indiscretion? He was hounded from the party by back-biters who savaged him in anonymous press briefings. If the Scottish Tories really want to show that they are no longer the nasty party, then someone, somewhere should apologise to Mr Hirst and make amends.

Nor does the Scottish Tories' current high-profile campaign to outlaw beggars strike quite the right compassionate note. I'm not sure the Scottish Tories are quite ready yet to start "understanding" drug addicts, hugging homosexuals and being soft on teenage mums who jump the council housing queues. Phil Gallie certainly isn't.

It is fascinating that so many "politically correct" issues, over which the Scottish Tories have lambasted Scottish Labour, are now becoming respectable among English Conservatives. The UK Tories are no longer obsessed with Keeping the Clause, being tough on criminals and seem to be adopting the very "social inclusion" language that the Scottish Tories loathe. Iain Duncan Smith seems also to be moving towards free personal care, which of course McLetchie supported too. We heard it all here first.

Hearing the cliched language of compassionate Conservatism indicates to many that it is insincere. That the English Tories are only adopting these positions to show that they aren't nasty Thatcherites any more. I'm sure there's a degree of cynicism - this is politics after all. Many Conservatives north and south think that the caring, sharing stuff is a load of Botox. But they realise they need to meet the people half way. The soap-opera morality of modern Britain is one of understanding, tolerance and respect for ethnic and sexual minorities.

Voters don't want hard messages any more, of right or left. Michael Portillo realised this after the 1997 election defeat, which is why he abandoned his earlier "don't mess with Britain" rhetoric, took to wearing blue shirts and called on the party to be less arrogant.

Iain Duncan Smith's speech confirms that he too has been won over to the modernising cause, but not, one suspects, without some personal conflict along the way. IDS, after all, was the ultimate ex- army, Thatcherite anti-European. He was Norman Tebbit's chosen successor in the Chingford constituency. Yet he has now disowned Tebbit and his kind, telling them that they are part of the past and don't live in the real world. He is now in favour of many of the things the former Tory chairman has no time for: gays, women and positive discrimination - and is calling on the party to abandon many of the cherished Thatcherite themes of the past.

Many, but not all. For beneath the Mr Nice image lies a firm bedrock of Thatcherism. Indeed, in many areas the New Tories have been prepared to go further than the Lady herself. She never dared to propose subsidising private operations or using state funds to help wealthy parents send their children to private schools. The Tories have revived the right to buy and say they'll apply it to housing associations, which could cause serious problems for those who run these nominally voluntary bodies. IDS is also proposing to get charities to take over parts of the welfare state, allow all hospitals to opt out of state control and give longer sentences to persistent offenders. So maybe the truth is that the nastiness is still around.

Whether Duncan Smith will be around for the next general election remains to be seen. Mutterings about his leadership have abated, if only because the conference wasn't the disaster that was forecast. But his speech cannot have inspired much confidence among party strategists. The situation is dire, with the Tories still flat- lining in the national polls. The day of destiny will come in May 2003, when the elections to the Scottish parliament, Welsh assembly and English councils give the first real verdict on IDS-ism. On present polling, Scots Tories will lose seats.

Scottish Labour will have fun teasing Scottish Tories about their new, caring image. It may not help Scottish Conservatives to be represented at UK level by an ideologically dyslexic elocution victim with a bad case of the Dubyas. Do the Tories need a quiet man when they are trying to rouse righteous anger at Scottish Labour's performance in the Executive?

Nice or nasty, it doesn't look as if the Conservatives are going anywhere in May. Do not underestimate the continuing hostility of the voters towards them.

Copyright 2002
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