RevPAR increase predicted - Stock Index
Bjorn HansonDuring the one-month period ending Jan. 22, PricewaterhouseCoopers' lodging C-Corp index increased about 3 percent, and PWC's lodging REIT index increased nearly 6 percent; the S&P 500 increased 4.67 percent during the same period. Compared with previous-year levels, stocks in PWC's lodging indices outperformed the broad equity indices.
The recovery of corporate profits and GDP growth in 2003, combined with the continued consumer confidence and a weaker dollar, are positive factors for the lodging industry's performance in 2004. PWC forecasts RevPAR to increase by 5.2 percent in 2004, substantially higher than the 0.3 percent RevPAR increase of 2003.
Oct-'03 Nov-'03 Dec-03 * U.S. Lodging Industry Rev 3.0% 3.6% 3.0% - 5.0% PAR (% change, previous year) Economic indicators 1Q-'03 2Q-'03 3Q-'03 Real GDP (seasonally adjusted 1.4% 3.3% 8.2% at annual rates) Percentage change from Oct-'03 Nov-'03 Dec-'03 previous month Producer prices Total 0.8 -0.3 0.3 Core 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 Consumer prices Total 0.0 -0.2 0.2 Core 0.2 -0.1 0.1 Construction 0.9 4.5 Manufacturers' orders 2.4 -1.4 Durable goods orders 4.0 -3.1 * Preliminary estimate Sources: Smith Travel Research; U. S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wall Street Journal. Top Declines f Humphrey Hospitality Trust -5.3% f Gaylord Entertainment Co. -3.7% f Janus Hotels and Resorts -3.2% f Arlington Hospitality -2.1% f Hilton Hotels Corp. -0.7% Top Advances [eth] Wyndham International 114.5% [eth] Lodgian 40.2% [eth] InnSuites Hospitality Trust 35.2% [eth] Jameson Inns Co. 25.6% [eth] John Q. Hammons Hotels 20.6%
Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D., is industry leader, hospitality and leisure, for PricewaterhouseCoopers, which offers hotel consulting, forecasting and analysis services.
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