文章基本信息

标题：Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the ‘success’ of national climate scenarios?
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作者：Mike Hulme ; Suraje Dessai
期刊名称：Environmental Research Letters
印刷版ISSN：1748-9326
电子版ISSN：1748-9326
出版年度：2008
卷号：3
期号：4
页码：045013-045013
DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045013
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing Ltd
摘要：Scenarios may be understood as products and/or processes. Viewing scenario exercises as productive tends to emphasize their tangibility: scenario products may acquire value unrelated to the processes of their creation. Viewing scenario exercises as procedural tends to emphasize their modes of formation: the process of constructing scenarios may have benefits irrespective of the value of ensuing products. These two framings yield different expectations about how one might evaluate the 'success' or otherwise of scenario exercises. We illustrate three approaches to evaluating the success or otherwise of scenarios using the example of the series of national UK climate scenarios published between 1991 and 2002. These are: predictive success (has the future turned out as envisaged?), decision success (have 'good' decisions subsequently been made?) and learning success (have scenarios proved engaging and enabled learning?). We reflect on the different ways the 'success' of national climate scenarios might be evaluated and on the relationship between the productive and procedural dimensions of scenario exercises.