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  • 标题:Oil Price Shocks and the Nigeria Economy: A Variance Autoregressive (VAR) Model
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:GUNU UMAR ; KILISHI, A. ABDULHAKEEM
  • 期刊名称:International Journal of Business and Management
  • 印刷版ISSN:1833-3850
  • 电子版ISSN:1833-8119
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 卷号:5
  • 期号:8
  • 页码:39
  • DOI:10.5539/ijbm.v5n8p39
  • 出版社:Canadian Center of Science and Education
  • 摘要:Oil prices have been highly volatile since the end of World War II. The volatility becomes even more serious in
    recent time. This has implications for the economies of oil exporting countries, particularly oil dependent
    countries like Nigeria. The paper examined the impact of these fluctuations on macroeconomic of Nigeria.
    Using VAR, the impact of crude oil price changes on four key macroeconomic variables was examined. The
    results show that oil prices have significant impact on real GDP, money supply and unemployment. It impact on
    the fourth variable, consumer price index is not significant. This implies that three key macroeconomic variables
    in Nigeria are significantly explained by exogenous and the highly volatile variable. Hence, the economy is
    vulnerable to external shocks. Consequently, the macroeconomic performance will be volatile and
    macroeconomic management will become difficult. Diversification of the economy is necessary in order to
    minimize the consequences of external shocks.
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