文章基本信息

标题：The effect of macro factors on bank credit activity in the Republic of Serbia
其他标题：EFEKAT MAKROFAKTORA NA KREDITNU AKTIVNOST BANKE U REPUBLICI SRBIJI
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作者：Dejan Živkov ; Simo Poparić ; Miloš Ilić 等
期刊名称：Škola Biznisa
印刷版ISSN：1451-6551
电子版ISSN：2406-1301
出版年度：2020
期号：1
页码：39-54
DOI：10.5937/skolbiz1-27260
语种：English
出版社：Visoka poslovna škola strukovnih studija, Novi Sad
摘要：This paper investigates whether and how key macro-fundamentals in Serbia affect the volumes of issued loans of Erste bank to public and business sector in Serbia. We made an effort to determine which particular macro factor has the highest influence on issued credits of Erste bank, and to measure the exact average magnitude of these influences. The main idea is to find out how GDP, inflation, central bank referent interest rate, exchange rate changes and Euribor affect short-term and long-term credit activity of Erste bank in Serbia. The computations are done by applying several multivariate regression models in which dependant variables are the volume of issued credits towards civil sector and enterprises. Based on the results, we can report that Euribor is the most important factor of all scrutinized macro-aggregates, since it affects most of the analysed bank loans. Besides Euribor, we find that other macro fundamentals influence the issued loans only sporadically. In other words, the level of GDP and inflation affect only long-term loans for businesses, while referent interest rate influences only short-term loans for public. We find that exchange rate changes have no effect on any loan of Erste bank, whatsoever, which clearly indicates that the bank protects itself very successfully against this type of macro risk.
其他摘要：Ovaj rad istražuje da li i kako ključni makrofundamenti u Srbiji utiču na količinu izdatih kredita Erste banke građanima i preduzećima u Srbiji. Težnja autora se odnosi na utvrđivanje određenog makrofaktora koji ima najveći uticaj na izdate kredite Erste banke, kao i na merenje tačne prosečne veličine ovih uticaja. Cilj rada je da se otkrije kako BDP, inflacija, referentna kamatna stopa Narodne banke Srbije, promene kursa i Euribor utiču na kratkoročnu i dugoročnu kreditnu aktivnost Erste banke u Srbiji. Izračunavanje se vrši primenom nekoliko multivarijantnih regresijskih modela u kojima su zavisne varijable obimi kredita odobrenih stanovništvu i privredi. Na bazi rezultata možemo zaključiti da je Euribor najvažniji faktor svih pregledanih makroagregata, jer utiče na većinu analiziranih bankarskih kredita. Pored Euribora, otkrivamo da drugi makrofundamenti utiču na izdate kredite samo sporadično. Drugim rečima, nivo BDP-a i inflacija utiču samo na dugoročne kredite za preduzeća, dok referentna kamatna stopa utiče samo na kratkoročne kredite za stanovništvo. Otkrivamo da promene kursa nemaju uticaja ni na jedan kredit Erste banke, što jasno ukazuje da se banka veoma uspešno štiti od ove vrste makrorizika.
关键词：Erste bank;macroeconomic factors;short-term and long-term loans;multivariate linear regression models;public sector and enterprises
其他关键词：Erste banka;makroekonomski faktori;kratkoročni i dugoročni krediti;multivarijantni linearni regresioni modeli;civilni sektor i preduzeća