文章基本信息

标题：The Global Economy after COVID-19: Challenges and Policy Resolutions
本地全文：下载
作者：Alan Deardorff ; Soyoung Kim ; Chul Chung 等
期刊名称：East Asian Economic Review
印刷版ISSN：2508-1640
电子版ISSN：2508-1667
出版年度：2020
卷号：24
期号：4
页码：305-312
DOI：10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2020.24.4.381
语种：English
出版社：Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
摘要：The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the world economy in 2020. As of December 23, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) reports more than 76 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and over 1.7 million deaths worldwide. Even more concerning is that these numbers are still growing fast. “The Great Lockdown” due to the pandemic has persisted throughout the year and caused the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The World Trade Organization (WTO) projects a 9.2 percent decrease in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2020 followed by a 7.2 percent increase in 2021, according to the WTO’s trade forecast released in October. This revised projection shows a much less severe decline than its previous forecast, which ranged from 13 percent (optimistic scenario) to 32 percent (pessimistic scenario). Swift and enormous policy responses to COVID-19 by many governments with fiscal stimulus supported by expansionary monetary policy might have mitigated the disastrous effects on world trade. Nevertheless, tremendous uncertainty still remains about the strength of the recovery.