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标题：Modeling the Spread and Control of COVID-19
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作者：Ashutosh Trivedi ; Nanda Kishore Sreenivas ; Shrisha Rao 等
期刊名称：Systems
电子版ISSN：2079-8954
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：3
页码：53
DOI：10.3390/systems9030053
出版社：MDPI Publishing
摘要：Data-centric models of COVID-19 have been attempted, but have certain limitations. In this work, we propose an agent-based model of the epidemic in a confined space of agents representing humans. An extension to the SEIR model allows us to consider the difference between the appearance (black-box view) of the spread of disease and the real situation (glass-box view). Our model allows for simulations of lockdowns, social distancing, personal hygiene, quarantine, and hospitalization, with further considerations of different parameters, such as the extent to which hygiene and social distancing are observed in a population. Our results provide qualitative indications of the effects of various policies and parameters, for instance, that lockdowns by themselves are extremely unlikely to bring an end to an epidemic and may indeed make things worse, that social distancing is more important than personal hygiene, and that the growth of infection is significantly reduced for moderately high levels of social distancing and hygiene, even in the absence of herd immunity.
关键词：COVID-19; SEIR; agent-based modeling; lockdown; hygiene; social distancing COVID-19 ; SEIR ; agent-based modeling ; lockdown ; hygiene ; social distancing