文章基本信息

标题：Effects of population ageing on the pension system in Belarus
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作者：Katerina Lisenkova ; Kateryna Bornukova
期刊名称：Baltic Journal of Economics
印刷版ISSN：1406-099X
出版年度：2017
卷号：17
期号：2
页码：103-118
DOI：10.1080/1406099X.2017.1318000
出版社：EuroBaltic Centres of Excellence; CEEOL
摘要：ABSTRACT Belarus currently has a relatively generous pay-as-you-go pension system, but population aging coupled with recent problems with economic growth will soon make it unsustainable. We build a rich overlapping generation model of Belarusian economy, which shows that without reform the Pension Fund will run into persistent and growing deficit, which will reach 9% of GDP by 2055. We also compute the fiscal projections of several parametric pension reforms, including the reform which will start in 2017. To avoid a deficit without reform, pension benefits would have to be substantially reduced. The increase of retirement age to 65 for both genders has a strong positive effect on sustainability of the pension system and keeps the deficit below 2% of GDP.
关键词：Belarus ; pension system ; demography ; retirement age ; pension reform