文章基本信息

标题：Oil Consumption Forecasting using ARIMA Models: An Empirical Study for Greece
本地全文：下载
作者：Chaido Dritsaki ; Dimitrios Niklis ; Pavlos Stamatiou 等
期刊名称：International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
电子版ISSN：2146-4553
出版年度：2021
卷号：11
期号：4
页码：214-224
DOI：10.32479/ijeep.11231
出版社：EconJournals
摘要：Oil is considered one of the most widely used commodity worldwide and one of the most important goods for a country’s productivity. Even if the effect of renewable energy sources tries to replace the consumption of fossil fuels, such as oil, nonetheless the level of worldwide oil consumption hasn’t changed. Forecasting oil consumption plays an important role on the designing of energy strategies for policy makers. This paper aims at modeling and forecasting oil consumption in Greece using Box-Jenkins methodology during 960-2020. Forecasting oil consumption was accomplished both with static and dynamic procedure, in and out-of-sample using various forecasting criteria. The results of our paper present a downturn in oil consumption for the following years due to two basic factors. The first is referred to Covid-19 pandemia where economic activity of the country decreased as well as business revenues. The second is the efforts made by the country to replace, oil consumption with other energy forms such as natural gas and mostly renewable sources like sun and wind. With these actions taken, the country – member of EU is consistent with the regulations signed to Kyoto protocol where there are commitments for CO 2 reduction emissions and improvement of energy use.
其他摘要：Oil is considered one of the most widely used commodity worldwide and one of the most important goods for a country’s productivity. Even if the effect of renewable energy sources tries to replace the consumption of fossil fuels, such as oil, nonetheless the level of worldwide oil consumption hasn’t changed. Forecasting oil consumption plays an important role on the designing of energy strategies for policy makers. This paper aims at modeling and forecasting oil consumption in Greece using Box-Jenkins methodology during 960-2020. Forecasting oil consumption was accomplished both with static and dynamic procedure, in and out-of-sample using various forecasting criteria. The results of our paper present a downturn in oil consumption for the following years due to two basic factors. The first is referred to Covid-19 pandemia where economic activity of the country decreased as well as business revenues. The second is the efforts made by the country to replace, oil consumption with other energy forms such as natural gas and mostly renewable sources like sun and wind. With these actions taken, the country – member of EU is consistent with the regulations signed to Kyoto protocol where there are commitments for CO 2 reduction emissions and improvement of energy use.
其他关键词：Oil Consumption; ARIMA model; Box-Jenkins methodology; forecasting; Greece.