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标题：Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century
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作者：Sourav Mukherjee ; Ashok Kumar Mishra ; Michael E. Mann 等
期刊名称：Earth's Future
电子版ISSN：2328-4277
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：5
页码：e2020EF001886
DOI：10.1029/2020EF001886
出版社：John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
摘要：Globally, heat stress (HS) is nearly certain to increase rapidly over the coming decades, characterized by increased frequency, severity, and spatiotemporal extent of extreme temperature and humidity. While these characteristics have been investigated independently, a holistic analysis integrating them is potentially more informative. Using observations, climate projections from the CMIP5 model ensemble, and historical and future population estimates, we apply the IPCC risk framework to examine present and projected future potential impact (PI) of summer heat stress for the contiguous United States (CONUS) as a function of non-stationary HS characteristics and population exposure. We find that the PI of short-to-medium duration (1–7 days) HS events is likely to increase more than three-fold across densely populated regions of the U.S. including the Northeast, Southeast Piedmont, Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest by late this century (2060–2099) under the highest emissions scenario. The contribution from climate change alone more than doubles the impact in the coastal Pacific Northwest, central California, and the Great Lakes region, implying a substantial increase in HS risk without aggressive mitigation efforts. Plain Language Abstract Heat stress has led to massive human morbidity and mortality in recent years. Severe heat stress (HS) events in the Midwest and the Gulf of Mexico coastal plains during the summers of 2019 and 2020, as well as many others during the 2010–2019 decade, are representative of the types of extreme hot and humid events expected to become more common in the contiguous United States (CONUS) in future. The HS is expected to become more severe due to an increase in frequency, duration, severity, and spatiotemporal extent of extreme warmth and moisture, which is an important, nonlinear, and often-neglected component. While these different contributing factors are often investigated independently, we argue that a holistic analysis that integrates them is more informative from the standpoint of the potential impact of HS exposure. The HS events likely to significantly increase across densely populated regions of the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, coastal Pacific Northwest, central California, and Great Lakes region.
关键词：climate change;heat stress;non-stationary risk assessment;population exposure