文章基本信息

标题：Eleven routine clinical features predict COVID-19 severity uncovered by machine learning of longitudinal measurements
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作者：Kai Zhou ; Yaoting Sun ; Lu Li 等
期刊名称：Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal
印刷版ISSN：2001-0370
出版年度：2021
卷号：19
页码：3640-3649
DOI：10.1016/j.csbj.2021.06.022
出版社：Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal
摘要：Severity prediction of COVID-19 remains one of the major clinical challenges for the ongoing pandemic. Here, we have recruited a 144 COVID-19 patient cohort, resulting in a data matrix containing 3,065 readings for 124 types of measurements over 52 days. A machine learning model was established to predict the disease progression based on the cohort consisting of training, validation, and internal test sets. A panel of eleven routine clinical factors constructed a classifier for COVID-19 severity prediction, achieving accuracy of over 98% in the discovery set. Validation of the model in an independent cohort containing 25 patients achieved accuracy of 80%. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 0.70, 0.99, 0.93, and 0.93, respectively. Our model captured predictive dynamics of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatine kinase (CK) while their levels were in the normal range. This model is accessible at https://www.guomics.com/covidAI/ for research purpose.
关键词：COVID-19 ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Severity prediction ; Machine learning ; Routine clinical test ; Longitudinal dynamics