文章基本信息

标题：Preparing Scientists, Policy-Makers, and Managers for a Fast-Forward Future
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作者：Norgaard, Richard B. ; Wiens, John A. ; Brandt, Stephen B. 等
期刊名称：San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science
印刷版ISSN：1546-2366
出版年度：2021
卷号：19
期号：2
页码：1-22
DOI：10.15447/sfews.2021v19iss2art2
出版社：San Francisco Bay-Delta Science Consortium and the John Muir Institute of the Environment
摘要：Ecosystems in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta are changing rapidly, as are ecosystems around the world. Extreme events are becoming more frequent and thresholds are likely to be crossed more often, creating greater uncertainty about future conditions. The accelerating speed of change means that ecological systems may not remain stable long enough for scientists to understand them, much less use their research findings to inform policy and management. Faced with these challenges, those involved in science, policy, and management must adapt and change and anticipate what the ecosystems may be like in the future. We highlight several ways of looking ahead—scenario analyses, horizon scanning, expert elicitation, and dynamic planning—and suggest that recent advances in distributional ecology, disturbance ecology, resilience thinking, and our increased understanding of coupled human–natural systems may provide fresh ways of thinking about more rapid change in the future. To accelerate forward-looking science, policy, and management in the Delta, we propose that the State of California create a Delta Science Visioning Process to fully and openly assess the challenges of more rapid change to science, policy, and management and propose appropriate solutions, through legislation, if needed.
关键词：California; climate change; ecology; environmental change; extreme events; governance; management; policy; rapid change; Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta; thresholds; uncertainty