文章基本信息

标题：PSYCHOMETRIC PREDICTION OF PENITENTIARY RECIDIVISM
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作者：Pedro Manuel Medina García ; Rosa María Baños Rivera
期刊名称：Psicothema
印刷版ISSN：0214-9915
电子版ISSN：1886-144X
出版年度：2016
卷号：28
期号：2
页码：194-200
DOI：10.7334/psicothema2015.269
出版社：Cologio Oficial de Psicólogos del Principado
摘要：Background: Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred. Method : Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists. Results : High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants. Conclusions : These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.
关键词：Delinquency; penitentiary recidivism; prediction; personality