文章基本信息

标题：Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail
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作者：Jonathan Auerbach ; Steve Pierson
期刊名称：Statistics and Public Policy
电子版ISSN：2330-443X
出版年度：2021
卷号：8
期号：1
页码：18-41
DOI：10.1080/2330443X.2021.1906806
出版社：Taylor and Francis Ltd
摘要：We estimate the change in the reported number of voter fraud cases when states switch to conducting elections by mail. We consider two types of states in which voting is facilitated by mail: states where a large number of voters receive ballots by mail (receive-by-mail states, RBM) and a subset of these states where registered voters are automatically sent ballots by mail (vote-by-mail states, VBM). We then compare the number of voter fraud cases in RBM (VBM) states to the number of cases in non-RBM (non-VBM) states, using two approaches standard in the social sciences. We find no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall. Between 2016 and 2019, RBM (VBM) states reported similar fraud rates to non-RBM (non-VBM) states. Moreover, we estimate Washington would have reported 73 more cases of fraud between 2011 and 2019 had it not introduced its VBM law. While our analysis of the data considers only two of many possible approaches, we argue our findings are unlikely were fraud more common when elections are held by mail.
关键词：Data ; Estimation ; Exploratory data analysis ; Longitudinal applications and case studies