文章基本信息

标题：Forecasting GDP of Bangladesh Using ARIMA Model
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作者：K. M. Salah Uddin ; Nishat Tanzim
期刊名称：International Journal of Business and Management
印刷版ISSN：1833-3850
电子版ISSN：1833-8119
出版年度：2021
卷号：16
期号：6
页码：56
DOI：10.5539/ijbm.v16n6p56
出版社：Canadian Center of Science and Education
摘要：Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an important indicators of a country’s economic growth. To assist in decision making process, this study intends to forecast the GDP for seven years and identify the factors affecting the GDP in context of Bangladesh using the data from World Bank. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is adopted to predict the GDP from 2019 to 2025 and multiple linear regression has been used to explore the factors affecting GDP. Different types of ARIMA (P, I, Q) tested and applied the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model are found as best appropriate for forecasting. Q-Q plot, residuals plot, PACF and ACF graphs of the residuals are drawn for checking model adequacy. From this study, it is observed that GDP trend is steadily improving over years in Bangladesh that will remain expanding in the forthcoming.
关键词：GDP; forecast; ARIMA model; multiple linear regression; Gross national expenditure