文章基本信息

标题：Nonlinear analysis and prediction of soybean futures
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作者：Tao Yin ; Yiming Wang
期刊名称：Agricultural Economics
印刷版ISSN：0139-570X
电子版ISSN：1805-9295
出版年度：2021
卷号：67
期号：5
页码：200-207
DOI：10.17221/480/2020-AGRICECON
出版社：Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
摘要：We use chaotic artificial neural network (CANN) technology to predict the price of the most widely traded agricultural futures – soybean futures. The nonlinear existence test results show that the time series of soybean futures have multifractal dynamics, long-range dependence, self similarity, and chaos characteristics. This also provides a basis for the construction of a CANN model. Compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) structure as our benchmark system, the predictability of CANN is much higher. The ANN is based on Gaussian kernel function and is only suitable for local approximation of nonstationary signals, so it cannot approach the global nonlinear chaotical hidden pattern. Improving the prediction accuracy of soybean futures prices is of great significance for investors, soybean producers, and decision makers.
关键词：artificial neural network (ANN); chaos; forecasting; long-range dependence; multifractal