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标题：Relationship of tropical cyclone size change rate with size and intensity over the western North Pacific
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作者：Kexin Chen ; Guanghua Chen ; Chenhong Rao 等
期刊名称：Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
印刷版ISSN：1674-2834
电子版ISSN：2376-6123
出版年度：2021
卷号：14
期号：3
页码：100040-100045
DOI：10.1016/j.aosl.2021.100040
出版社：Taylor and Francis Ltd
摘要：In this study, the relationship of tropical cyclone (TC) size change rate (SCR), within 24 hours, with size, intensity, and intensity change rate (ICR) are explored over the western North Pacific. TC size is defined as the azimuthally averaged radius of gale-force wind of 17 m s −1 (R17) based on the Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis data. The majority of SCRs are mainly distributed in the range from −20 to 80 km d −1 . The correlation coefficients between SCR and size (SCR-R17), intensity, and ICR (SCR-ICR) are −0.43, −0.12, and 0.25, respectively. The sensitivity of the SCR-R17 and SCR-ICR relationships to size, intensity, and evolution stage are further examined. Results show that the SCR-R17 relationship is more sensitive to variations of size and evolution stage than that of intensity. The relationship of SCR-ICR is largely modulated by the evolution stage. The correlation coefficient of SCR-ICR can increase from 0.25 to 0.40 when only considering the lifetime stages concurrently before and after the lifetime maximum size (LMS) and lifetime maximum intensity. This demonstrates that ICR is a potential factor in predicting SCR during these evolution stages. Besides, the TC size expansion (shrinkage) is more likely to occur for TCs with smaller (larger) size and weaker (stronger) intensity. The complexity of size change during a TC's lifetime can be attributed to the fact that shrinkage or expansion could occur both before and after LMS. 摘要为了进一步了解热带气旋 (TC) 尺度变化与其结构的相关关系, 本文基于多平台热带气旋表面风场资料, 通过相关分析得出西北太平洋上TC的24 h尺度变化率(SCR)与其尺度,强度以及强度变化率 (ICR) 的相关系数分别为–0.43, –0.12, 0.25.其中SCR-ICR的相关关系主要受不同发展阶段的影响, 在TC均达到/均未达到最大尺度和最强强度的阶段中, SCR-ICR的相关系数上升至0.40, 表明在这些阶段中ICR是预报SCR的潜在因子之一.当TC尺度较小 (大) 和强度较弱 (强) 时其尺度更易扩张 (收缩) .
关键词：Tropical cyclone ; size change rate ; Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis data ; correlation analysis ; 关键词: ; 热带气旋 ; 尺度变化率 ; 多平台热带气旋表面风场资料 ; 相关分析