文章基本信息

标题：Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate
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作者：Yiannis Moustakis ; Simon Michael Papalexiou ; Christian J Onof 等
期刊名称：Earth's Future
电子版ISSN：2328-4277
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：3
页码：e2020EF001824
DOI：10.1029/2020EF001824
出版社：John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
摘要：Precipitation extremes are expected to intensify under climate change with consequent impacts in flooding and ecosystem functioning. Here we use station data and high‐resolution simulations from the WRF convection permitting climate model (∼4 km, 1 h) over the US to assess future changes in hourly precipitation extremes. It is demonstrated that hourly precipitation extremes and storm depths are expected to intensify under climate change and what is now a 20‐year rainfall will become a 7‐year rainfall on average for ∼ 75% of gridpoints over the US. This intensification is mostly expressed as an increase in rainfall tail heaviness. Statistically significant changes in the seasonality and duration of rainfall extremes are also exhibited over ∼ 95% of the domain. Our results suggest more non‐linear future precipitation extremes with shorter spell duration that are distributed more uniformly throughout the year. Plain Language Abstract Rainfall extremes are intensifying under climate change and are expected to have an impact on ecosystem functioning and catchment flood responses. Here, we use state‐of‐the‐art high‐resolution convection permitting model simulations and station data to examine future changes in the statistical properties of rainfall extremes in a warmer climate. Our results reveal a severe intensification of rainfall extremes throughout the US in a warmer climate, with a less pronounced seasonal signal and decreased spell duration.
关键词：climate change;convection‐permitting models;rainfall extremes;rainfall intensification;rainfall seasonality