文章基本信息

标题：How Oil Price and Exchange Rate Affect Non-oil GDP of the Oil-rich Country – Azerbaijan?
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作者：Famil Majidli ; Hasraddin Guliyev
期刊名称：International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
电子版ISSN：2146-4553
出版年度：2020
卷号：10
期号：5
页码：123-130
DOI：10.32479/ijeep.9561
出版社：EconJournals
摘要：Identifying the economic factors that affect economic growth is an important issue for each economy. It is a matter of debate to determine the building blocks of non-oil GDP growth, especially in oil-rich countries, such as Azerbaijan. Using the Fully Modified Ordinary Smallest Square approach between 2005-2019, this study aims to investigate the relationship between real non-oil GDP growth of Azerbaijan and exchange rate and oil prices. Zivot-Andrews unit root test is applied to deal with structural breaks in data and the Gregory-Hansen test for robustness. While conventional unit-root tests decision that the series are not stationary at their level, the Ziwot-Andrews test decision that the series is stationary with structural break. According to the Gregory-Hansen test result, there is a structural break date in the long-run relationship between the real non-oil GDP growth and the oil price and the USD /AZN exchange rate in early 2009. According to FMOLS results, the increase in oil price increases real non-oil GDP growth, and the increase in USD / AZN exchange rate has a decreasing effect on it. This study contains considerable information for future economic policies for oil-rich countries that want to develop the non-oil sector.
关键词：oil price;non-oil GDP;exchange rate;fully modified ordinary smallest square approach;cointegration analysis;Azerbaijan