文章基本信息

标题：An Early Warning Signal (EWS) Model for Predicting Financial Crisis in Emerging African Economies
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作者：Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi ; Devi Datt Tewari
期刊名称：International Journal of Financial Research
印刷版ISSN：1923-4023
电子版ISSN：1923-4031
出版年度：2020
卷号：12
期号：1
页码：101-110
DOI：10.5430/ijfr.v12n1p101
出版社：Sciedu Press
摘要：The devastating effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) have led to a renewed, global interest in the development of an early warning signal (EWS) model. The purpose of the EWS model is to alert policymakers and other stakeholders to the possibility of the occurrence of a crisis. This study estimates a EWS model for predicting the financial crisis in four emerging African economies using a multinomial logit model and a data set covering the period of January 1980 to December 2017. The result of the study suggests that emerging African economies are more likely to face financial crisis as debts continue to rise without a corresponding capacity to withstand capital flow reversal as well as excessive foreign exchange risk due to currency exposure. The result further indicates that rising debt exposure raises the likelihood of the economies remaining in a state of crisis. This result confirms the significance of a financial stability framework that addresses the issues confronting Africa’s emerging economies such as rising debt profile, liquidity and currency risk exposure.
关键词：Early Warning Signal (EWS);financial crisis;logit;multinomial