文章基本信息

标题：Long-term deep decarbonisation pathways for Ecuador: Insights from an integrated assessment model
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作者：Daniel Villamar ; Rafael Soria ; Pedro Rochedo 等
期刊名称：Energy Strategy Reviews
印刷版ISSN：2211-467X
出版年度：2021
卷号：35
页码：100637
DOI：10.1016/j.esr.2021.100637
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：This work presents an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed for Ecuador, the so-called Ecuador Land Use and Energy Network Analysis model (ELENA). This model includes six distinctive sectors of the economy and displays the four geographic regions composing the country. The model enables to capture sectorial interactions, under a set of scenarios designed to evaluate the energy and land perspectives until 2050. The model is a crucial planning instrument to evaluate public policies, such as National Determined Contributions (NDC) and even more ambitious decarbonisation scenarios. Findings show that Ecuador's NDC are not aligned with the “well below” 2 °C target, committed in the Paris Agreement. Moreover, to achieve deep decarbonisation it is necessary to endorse disruptive strategies in which bioenergy and reforestation play a main role. To keep under the 1.5 °C temperature threshold above pre-industrial levels, Ecuador's energy matrix must be diversified with higher shares of low carbon technologies and electrification of energy end use in the transport, buildings and industry sectors. Biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and biofuels could transform the energy sector in a CO 2 sink.
关键词：Integrated assessment model (IAM) ; Deep decarbonisation ; Net-zero emissions ; Energy planning ; Ecuador