文章基本信息

标题：Threshold-based evolutionary magnitude estimation for an earthquake early warning system in the Sichuan–Yunnan region, China
本地全文：下载
作者：Yuan Wang ; Shanyou Li ; Jindong Song 等
期刊名称：Scientific Reports
电子版ISSN：2045-2322
出版年度：2020
卷号：10
期号：1
页码：1-12
DOI：10.1038/s41598-020-78046-2
出版社：Springer Nature
摘要：The Sichuan–Yunnan region is one of the most seismically vulnerable areas in China. Accordingly, an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the region is essential to reduce future earthquake hazards. This research analyses the utility of two early warning parameters (τc and Pd) for magnitude estimation using 273 events that occurred in the Sichuan–Yunnan region during 2007–2015. We find that τc can more reliably predict high-magnitude events during a short P-wave time window (PTW) but produces greater uncertainty in the low-magnitude range, whereas Pd is highly correlated with the event magnitude depending on the selection of an appropriate PTW. Here, we propose a threshold-based evolutionary magnitude estimation method based on a specific combination of τc and Pd that both offers more robust advance magnitude estimates for large earthquakes and ensures the estimation accuracy for low-magnitude events. The advantages of the proposed approach are validated using data from 2016–2017 and the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in an offline simulation. The proposed concept provides a useful basis for the future implementation of an EEW system in the Sichuan–Yunnan region.
其他摘要：Abstract The Sichuan–Yunnan region is one of the most seismically vulnerable areas in China. Accordingly, an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the region is essential to reduce future earthquake hazards. This research analyses the utility of two early warning parameters (τ c and P d ) for magnitude estimation using 273 events that occurred in the Sichuan–Yunnan region during 2007–2015. We find that τ c can more reliably predict high-magnitude events during a short P-wave time window (PTW) but produces greater uncertainty in the low-magnitude range, whereas P d is highly correlated with the event magnitude depending on the selection of an appropriate PTW. Here, we propose a threshold-based evolutionary magnitude estimation method based on a specific combination of τ c and P d that both offers more robust advance magnitude estimates for large earthquakes and ensures the estimation accuracy for low-magnitude events. The advantages of the proposed approach are validated using data from 2016–2017 and the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in an offline simulation. The proposed concept provides a useful basis for the future implementation of an EEW system in the Sichuan–Yunnan region.