文章基本信息

标题：Spatial Simulation of Codesigned Land Cover Change Scenarios in New England: Alternative Futures and Their Consequences for Conservation Priorities
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作者：Jonathan R. Thompson ; Joshua S. Plisinski ; Kathy Fallon Lambert 等
期刊名称：Earth's Future
电子版ISSN：2328-4277
出版年度：2020
卷号：8
期号：7
页码：1-23
DOI：10.1029/2019EF001348
出版社：John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
摘要：Scientists are increasingly engaging with stakeholders to codesign scenarios of land use change necessitating methods to translate the resulting qualitative scenarios into quantitative simulations. We demonstrate a transparent method for translating participatory scenarios to simulations of land use and land cover (LULC) change using the New England Landscape Futures (NELF) project as a case study. The NELF project codesigned four divergent narrative scenarios that contrast with a Recent Trends scenario projecting a continuation of observed changes New England over the past 20 years. Here, we (1) describe the process and utility of translating qualitative scenarios into spatial simulations using a dynamic cellular land change model, (2) evaluate scenario LULC configuration relative to the Recent Trends scenario and to each other, (3) compare the fate of forests within stakeholder‐defined areas of concern, and (4) describe how a user‐inspired outreach tool was developed to make the simulations and analyses accessible to a diverse user group. The associated simulations are strongly divergent in terms of the amount of LULC change and the spatial pattern of change. Among the scenarios, there is a fivefold difference in the amount of high‐density development and a twofold difference in the amount of protected land. Features of the simulations can clearly be linked back to the original storylines. Overall, the rate of LULC change has a greater influence on stakeholder areas of concern than the spatial configuration. The simulated scenarios have been integrated into an online mapping tool via a user‐engagement process meeting the needs of a variety of stakeholders. Plain Language Abstract To help prepare for an uncertain future, planners and scientists often engage with stakeholders to codesign alternative scenarios of land use change. Methods to translate the resulting qualitative scenarios into quantitative simulations that characterize the future landscape condition are needed to understand the consequences of the scenarios while maintaining the legitimacy of the process. We use the New England Landscape Futures (NELF) project as a case study to demonstrate a transparent and reproduceable method for translating participatory scenarios to simulations of land use and land cover (LULC) change. In addition, using the NELF simulations, we quantify the major drivers of land use change and show how the scenarios differentially alter potential land‐use pathways and, in turn, affect conservation priorities. The NELF project codesigned four narrative scenarios that contrast with a Recent Trends scenario that projects a continuation of observed changes across the 18 × 10 6 ‐ha region during the past 20 years. Here, we (1) describe the process and utility of translating qualitative scenarios into spatial simulations using a dynamic cellular land change model, (2) evaluate the outcomes of the scenarios in terms of the differences in the LULC configuration relative to the Recent Trends scenario and to each other, (3) compare the fate of forests within key areas of concern to the stakeholders, and (4) describe how a user‐inspired outreach tool was developed to make the simulations and analyses accessible to diverse users. Each of the four alternative scenarios populates a quadrant of future conditions that crosses high to low natural resource planning and innovation with local to global socioeconomic connectedness. The associated simulations are strongly divergent in terms of the amount of LULC change and the spatial pattern of change. Features of the simulations can be linked back to the original storylines. Among the scenarios there is a fivefold difference in the amount of high‐density development and a twofold difference in the amount of protected land. Overall, the rate of LULC change has a greater influence on forestlands of concern to the stakeholders than does the spatial configuration. The simulated scenarios have been integrated into an online mapping tool that was designed via a user‐engagement process to meet the needs of diverse stakeholders who are interested the future of the land and in using future scenarios to guide land use planning and conservation priorities.
关键词：Scenarios;SImulation;Land use