文章基本信息

标题：Event‐Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk
本地全文：下载
作者：Jana Sillmann ; Theodore G. Shepherd ; Bart van den Hurk 等
期刊名称：Earth's Future
电子版ISSN：2328-4277
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：2
页码：e2020EF001783
DOI：10.1029/2020EF001783
出版社：John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
摘要：The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model‐based probabilistic climate change projections. Event‐based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress‐testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event‐based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain. Plain Language Abstract One of today's major challenges is how to use insights and information from climate sciences to inform decision‐making regarding managing risks from climate change, where weather and climate extremes represent a major component of climate‐related risk. So far, climate science has taken a probabilistic approach producing large model ensembles and exploring likely ranges, thereby neglecting low‐likelihood but potentially high‐impact events that pose significant risks to society. Event‐based storylines are emerging as an alternative way to explore future high‐impact events while taking into account aspects of vulnerability and exposure of the considered system with an emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This concept links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress‐testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific, but plausible assumptions. When co‐developed by climate scientists and stakeholders, event‐based storylines can be informed by physical climate and impact modeling and can provide a useful way of communicating and assessing climate‐related risk in a specific decision‐making context.
关键词：climate change;decision‐making;high‐impact events;low likelihood;risk;storylines