文章基本信息

标题：On the effect of postponing pregnancy in a Zika transmission model
本地全文：下载
作者：Edy Soewono ; Glenn Lahodny
期刊名称：Advances in Difference Equations
印刷版ISSN：1687-1839
电子版ISSN：1687-1847
出版年度：2021
卷号：2021
期号：1
页码：1
DOI：10.1186/s13662-021-03308-w
出版社：Hindawi Publishing Corporation
摘要：We construct a Zika transmission model to investigate the effect of postponing pregnancy on the infection intensity. We perform analytical and numerical investigations for deterministic and stochastic analysis to obtain the basic reproductive ratio, endemic state, probability of disease extinction, and the probability of outbreak. The results indicate that by reducing the pregnancy rate the mosquito-to-human ratio increases, and, consequently, the basic reproductive ratio increases. Simultaneously, the probability of disease extinction decreases, and the probability of disease outbreak increases. On the other hand, the endemic state of infected infants initially increases with the decrease of the pregnancy recruitment rate, up to a certain level, and decreases as the recruitment rate of pregnancy tends to zero. This work highlights that postponing pregnancy that gives the individual temporary protection for unexpected infected newborns may increase the population infectivity.
关键词：Epidemiology ; Zika ; CTMC model ; Basic reproductive ratio ; Probability of disease extinction ; Probability of outbreak