文章基本信息

标题：Brexit: An Exploratory Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects on the British Economy
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作者：João Alves Bento ; António Portugal Duarte
期刊名称：Scientific Annals of the “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iasi – Economic Sciences Series
印刷版ISSN：2501-1960
电子版ISSN：2501-3165
出版年度：2020
页码：69-85
DOI：10.47743/saeb-2020-0027
出版社：Sciendo
摘要：This paper investigates the effects of the Brexit announcement on the British economy. For this, we use a counterfactual analysis methodology, predicting a set of macroeconomic variables of the British economy in a scenario where the Brexit announcement did not happen and measuring what drifted away from its effective value. To forecast the variables we use the ARIMA method. Our conclusions are that if Brexit had not been announced: i) the exchange rate of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar would not have had such a sharp depreciation trend; ii) real wage growth would not have been as high after the referendum; iii) the growth rate of the consumer price index would not have had such a strong growth trend and iv) the Gross Domestic Product would have grown at a higher pace and after three years of Brexit announcement it would have been 3% higher.
关键词：Brexit;United Kingdom;European Union;ARIMA;counterfactual.